Analytics model predicts Ole Miss vs. Florida game winner

Ole Miss returns to SEC action in a battle against unranked Florida amid rumors that Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin could take the same position for the team on the other side of the field.

Whatever remains in store for Kiffin is still a mystery, but there is constant speculation that he could take the job at Florida next season as the current betting favorite to land with the Gators.

For now, Kiffin has the Rebels in College Football Playoff contention, sitting at No. 7 in the committee rankings and seemingly poised to take one of the dozen spots in the postseason field.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction

As you might expect, the simulations strongly favor the Rebels over the Gators in this matchup.

The computer model sees Ole Miss as a strong favorite against Florida, projecting the Rebels to win 81.3% of the time in 20,000 simulated matchups.

The Gators came out on top in just 18.7% of simulations.

Overall, Ole Miss won 16,260 of the simulated games, while Florida claimed victory in 3,740.

On average, the model forecasts Ole Miss to be about 10.1 points better than Florida on the same field — a margin that highlights the Rebels’ significant edge heading into the contest.

That would still not be enough for the Rebs to cover the spread, as Ole Miss is a 15.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 67 percent of all games and hit 57 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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