Ole Miss vs. Tulane prediction: Who wins, and why?

Ole Miss has already dominated Tulane on the field this season, but now both are poised for a rematch in the first round of the College Football Playoff this weekend.

Trinidad Chambliss helped lead the Rebels to a 35-point win over the Green Wave back in late September, but plenty has changed since then.

Usually, coaches who lead teams to the playoff don’t leave for better jobs, but that’s what Lane Kiffin did, bolting the Ole Miss team he helped bring to national prominence and landing at LSU, leaving Pete Golding as the coach of the Rebels’ future.

Ole Miss didn’t get to play for the SEC championship, but Tulane played for and won the American title, setting up a rematch in Oxford for what should be the biggest sporting event in the history of the state.

Ole Miss vs. Tulane: What to watch for

Ole Miss vs. Tulane football game prediction 2025 — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

1. Ole Miss offense vs. Tulane defense

The Rebels’ offense is built around pace, matchup hunting, and stressing defenses horizontally before taking vertical shots, so Tulane has to be able to handle tempo and tackle well in space to avoid getting bled by efficient drives and occasional explosives.

If Ole Miss protects the quarterback, runs the ball well enough to keep play-action alive, and avoids negative plays on early downs, they can put Tulane’s defense on its heels and test its depth late.

For Tulane, getting pressure with four rushers and stealing a possession or two with turnovers is the path to keep Ole Miss from turning this into a track meet.

2. Tulane run game and balance

Tulane’s identity traditionally leans on a physical run game and complementary play-action, which is the right formula to shorten the game and keep Ole Miss’ offense on the sideline.

If Tulane can consistently win on the ground and stay ahead of the chains, it can avoid obvious passing downs where Ole Miss’ athleticism on the edge becomes a bigger factor.

For Ole Miss, fitting the run and forcing Tulane into third-and-long situations lets its pass rush and disguised coverages dictate more of the game.

3. Money downs, turnovers, and game flow

Third downs, red-zone trips, and turnovers are likely to define the narrative more than pure yardage totals.

Ole Miss will want touchdowns, not field goals, out of its tempo-driven drives; if Tulane can bend but not break and force a few field goals, it keeps the upset door open.

Conversely, Tulane has far less margin for error, so avoiding giveaways and wasted red-zone trips is critical; a single short-field turnover or special-teams mistake that hands Ole Miss a cheap score could be the difference between staying within one possession and letting the game get away.

Ole Miss vs. Tulane prediction: Who wins?

Line: Ole Miss -17.5, 57.5

Lane Kiffin or no Lane Kiffin, the Rebels are the better team here, boasting the kind of electric perimeter speed from their playmakers that should have an edge on the Tulane defenders.

With one catch. Ole Miss is outside the top-75 nationally in early-down EPA on defense, while Tulane is one of the most productive in offensive early-down EPA average behind a quarterback in Jake Retzlaff who has grown more accurate and productive on a per-pass basis since September.

Tulane also has more film on Chambliss and will create a new defensive scheme to counter his mobility, and there could be an overall slip in efficiency as Golding takes the reins for the first time.

College Football HQ picks...

Ole Miss wins 37-23
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the over

More: Ole Miss vs. Tulane score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Tulane

When: Sat., Dec. 20
Where: Ole Miss

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: TNT/truTV networks

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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