Alabama or SMU: Who makes the College Football Playoff?

Coming into Selection Sunday, the College Football Playoff selection committee has quite a decision over that last team in: SEC powerhouse Alabama, or plucky ACC upstart SMU?

College Football Playoff selectors have quite a dilemma before them: to take Alabama, or SMU, in the 12-team field. / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Just as Clemson’s game-winning field goal sailed through the uprights as time expired to win the ACC championship, the biggest question in college football presented itself: what team, between SMU and Alabama, will take the final 12th position in the College Football Playoff?

Entering that game, the consensus appeared to be that SMU would be left out of the tournament with a loss to Clemson, which would clinch a berth by virtue of its conference title, and that three-loss SEC powerhouse Alabama would take one of the final positions.

But given how closely the Mustangs played that game, new questions arose as to whether they, and not the Crimson Tide, really deserved to play for the national championship.

Coming into Selection Sunday, the committee is faced with a critical decision that could set a precedent throughout the life of the expanded playoff.

How do the teams compare based on what the committee says are their most important metrics?

Strength of record: Alabama has the advantage here, ranking 9th nationally, compared to SMU playing the 15th-best showing against its opponents in the country.

Game control: Another edge for the Crimson Tide, which ranks 6th in this key metrics, while the Mustangs check in not far behind, at 12th in FBS.

Strength of schedule: This is the biggest edge for Alabama, which sits at 9th nationally, while SMU is just 60th among 134 FBS teams in this category.

“Best win”: No contest here, as Alabama owns a victory against SEC champion Georgia, while SMU’s best victory could be considered its win against then-ranked, but now not-ranked, Pitt.

For what it’s worth, ESPN’s Football Power Index metric also favors the Crimson Tide, which ranks 6th nationally in its team rankings, compared to the Mustangs, at No. 13.

That metric takes data points from both teams and simulates their games 20,000 times to estimate how much better they would be against an average opponent.

SMU (11-2) has one principal advantage, in that it played for its conference championship, something Alabama didn’t do with its 9-3 record.

And playing for a conference title is something the committee values very highly.

Even in losing the ACC title bout, the Mustangs looked the part, rebounding from a slow start to tie that game with under a minute left after mounting a furious and impressive comeback.

What do the oddsmakers say about the committee’s big decision?

So far, it appears that SMU is the favorite over Alabama to make the College Football Playoff, at least according to the latest odds posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists SMU at -1000 to make the historic 12-team field, while Alabama comes in with +560 odds to leapfrog the Mustangs and take their spot in the final dozen.

Our prediction, for what it’s worth, is that SMU does edge out Alabama to make the playoff.

That doesn’t mean the selectors won’t try to use any argument they can to get what they consider a more telegenic Alabama team with a larger audience in the 12-team field.

But in the end, while Alabama has better wins, SMU has two losses to the Tide’s three, both of which are to ranked opponents, won six games against bowl teams, went undefeated in conference play, and has won nine straight.

The trend seems to signify that the committee will argue the Mustangs have “better losses,” considering Alabama dropped games against unranked Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.

Our verdict: SMU will make the College Football Playoff over Alabama.

More ... Predicting the College Football Playoff bracket

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