Alabama vs. Georgia score prediction for SEC Championship Game by expert football model

Despite all else Kirby Smart has accomplished, including winning two national championship, he is just 1-7 against Alabama in his career, and now his Georgia team faces off against its nemesis with the SEC championship and playoff positioning on the line.

Kalen DeBoer is 2-0 against Smart already and has a chance to make it three while also giving the selection committee an argument for handing the Crimson Tide a first-round bye in the playoff.

A loss could put Alabama out of the field entirely, especially given there are plenty of other teams hovering just outside the bubble who are hoping for Championship Week chaos to exploit.

Georgia is in no matter what, but wants to win the biggest conference prize in college football.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide face off for the SEC championship?

For that, we turn to the SP+ college football prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and Georgia compare, and use it to lock in our own prediction.

Alabama vs. Georgia score prediction

Revenge time for the Bulldogs, and for Kirby Smart.

The model is siding with the reigning SEC champions to make it two-straight in Atlanta and clinch what should be a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Alabama by a projected score of 27 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Bulldogs a 57 percent chance to defeat the Crimson Tide in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 387-365 against the spread with a 51.5 win percentage. Last week, it was 38-29 (56.7%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

The betting markets expect the Bulldogs to get some revenge on the Crimson Tide, but project a very close matchup.

Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -134 and for Alabama at +114 to win outright.

What we think will happen

The Tide was rolling after the season-opening loss, thanks to a dynamic aerial attack piloted by first-year starting quarterback Ty Simpson, but that production has slowed in recent weeks.

An offense that has not eclipsed 30 points against the last four FBS teams it played, combined with a meager run game, could meet its match against a Georgia defense that has made key adjustments.

College Football HQ predicts: Georgia beats Alabama to win the SEC championship, and covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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