Alabama vs. Georgia, SEC Championship prediction by ESPN football computer

The rematch is on, and for plenty more than just the SEC championship as Alabama and Georgia face off for the second, and even more consequential, time this season.

Alabama handed Georgia is only loss this season, a three-point decision in Athens, and now the Bulldogs are eager to return the favor and lock in what would be a first-round bye in the playoff.

Georgia will be in the playoff win or lose, but Kirby Smart is 1-7 against the Tide, and is in position to not only improve that record but potentially put Bama on the outside of the bracket.

With a loss, the Crimson Tide would fall to 10-3 and tumble back into a crowded bubble that includes the likes of Miami, BYU, Vanderbilt, and maybe even Texas.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Alabama vs. Georgia prediction

The models forecast a close game. A very close game. But one that ultimately will not give the Bulldogs a chance at revenge for their one loss.

Make it another L against the Crimson Tide for Kirby Smart, as Alabama came out ahead in the slight majority 51.1 percent of the computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Georgia as the presumptive winner in he remaining 48.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to the narrowest of margins.

Alabama is projected to be just 0.3 points better than Georgia on the same field, according to the model's latest forecasts.

If so, that would constitute an upset, as Georgia is a 2.5 point favorite against Alabama, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74.6 percent of all games and hit 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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