Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

College Football Playoff hopes are on the line on Saturday as No. 4 Alabama welcomes No. 11 Oklahoma as Week 12 action kicks off some very consequential football.

Alabama is still in line to play for the SEC championship on an eight-game win streak but a little bipolar on offense, superb at throwing the ball but terrible at running it.

Oklahoma has been touch-and-go on offense since a hand injury to quarterback John Mateer, but its defense has been playing lights out, and coming off a marquee win at Tennessee. A loss here, however, would likely end its playoff chances.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Sooners pay a visit to the Crimson Tide?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oklahoma and Alabama compare in this Week 12 football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Alabama vs. Oklahoma score prediction

As might be expected, the model forecasts a win for the home team in this SEC clash, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Oklahoma by a projected score of 25 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a narrow 53 percent chance of outright victory simulating what could happen against a strong Oklahoma defense.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 286-281 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 23-28 (45.1%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are also siding with the Crimson Tide over the Sooners, but expect a close game.

Alabama is a 5.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -215 and for Oklahoma at +180 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Alabama enters the weekend in rhythm and full control, riding an eight-game winning streak powered by a strong defense and an increasingly confident offense that is limiting opponents’ scoring chances, but there are questions around a dismal ground game that could keep this close.

Oklahoma arrives with flashes of brilliance but lingering offensive inconsistency, particularly in protecting the ball and sustaining drives against elite defenses.

The Sooners’ speed can create moments of trouble, and their defense has the bodies to swarm the Tide around the line, yet discipline and execution on offense have been elusive against top-tier teams.

We’re departing from the SP+ consensus for this game, not in expecting Alabama to win outright, but we have more confidence in the Crimson Tide’s perimeter threats to get around Oklahoma’s defenders over time and make this a touchdown game.

Alabama -5.5
Tide to win -215
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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