Alabama vs. UL Monroe score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Alabama vs. UL Monroe in this Week 2 college football matchup from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Alabama vs. UL Monroe football prediction 2025 | Will McLelland-Imagn Images

Alabama returns home after a stunning loss and having dipped in the rankings to play its home opener against UL Monroe in college football’s Week 2 action. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Those lofty preseason expectations Alabama had are in danger of going up in smoke after last week’s two-touchdown loss on the road against unranked Florida State, despite the Crimson Tide being two-score favorites in that game.

Starting out 0-1 after winning just nine games a year ago has second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer under considerable pressure, and his team needs to make a statement in this game by putting forth their absolute A-game effort.

All sorts of comparisons will be made this week as Alabama hosts UL Monroe, the team Nick Saban notably lost to in his first season as head coach.

This year’s version of the game isn’t expected to be anywhere near as competitive, but the Warhawks do come to Tuscaloosa on the heels of a solid rushing performance, racking up 311 yards on the ground in a big win over St. Francis in the opener.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Crimson Tide and Warhawks meet in this non-conference matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Alabama and UL Monroe compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Alabama vs. UL Monroe score prediction

As expected, the model is siding very strongly with the Crimson Tide over the Warhawks in a bounce-back game at home.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat UL Monroe by a projected score of 41 to 10 and will win the game by an expected margin of 31.6 points.

The model gives the Tide a convincing 98 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 23-25 against the spread with a 47.9 win percentage.

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How to pick Alabama vs. UL Monroe

The home side is predictably a big favorite over its non-conference counterpart.

Alabama is a 37.5 point favorite against UL Monroe, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the game.

And it didn’t bother listing any moneyline odds, given how clear Alabama is as the favorite over UL Monroe.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• UL Monroe +37.5
• Bet over 50.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bets looking ahead to this matchup.

Alabama is getting a slight majority of bets to take care of UL Monroe in this matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

The majority 61 percent of bettors are taking the Crimson Tide to return to form and pound the Warhawks by covering this massive point spread in a win.

UL Monroe is getting the other 39 percent of wagers to, if not upset Alabama on the road, then to at least keep the margin under 38 points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are predictably siding very strongly with the Crimson Tide over the Warhawks.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Alabama is a very convincing favorite over UL Monroe, winning the game in the overwhelming majority 96.3 percent of the computer’s simulations.

That leaves the Warhawks as the presumptive winner in the remaining 3.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Alabama is projected to be 26.6 points better than UL Monroe on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Crimson Tide to cover the big point spread.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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College Football HQ prediction

Look, the Crimson Tide aren’t going to be in danger of losing this game, but exactly how and by how much they win will be under a very severe microscope by fans and analysts.

Any mishap, any slow start, any failed scoring opportunities, any lull in the offense on Alabama’s part, and the black cloud following Kalen DeBoer around will only get blacker.

Monroe may not be an offensive juggernaut, and its successful rushing effort did come against an FCS opponent, but the Tide’s front seven still needs to be on guard to prevent the Warhawk backs from getting any early momentum.

In the meantime, there shouldn’t be any issue of Alabama’s receivers navigating the Monroe secondary to pull out some long gainers and stretch the field.

College Football HQ picks: Alabama wins by 34, doesn’t cover the spread.

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How to watch Alabama vs. UL Monroe

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Alabama

Time: 7:45 p.m. Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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