Alabama vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert football model

Alabama returns home for a chance at revenge against Vanderbilt as college football’s Week 6 action gets underway on Saturday. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores.

Vanderbilt had the Crimson Tide’s number a year ago, pulling off an upset of historic proportions in what was the school’s first win over its SEC counterpart since 1984 and its first victory against an AP No. 1 ranked opponent, ever.

It threw a monkey wrench into Alabama’s season, the first for head coach Kalen DeBoer, who was coming off a signature win against Georgia.

As he is again this week, after Bama got out of Athens with a three-point victory over the reigning SEC champions as it heads back home to tangle with the Commodores.

Vandy won’t be surprising anyone this year, marching out to its first 5-0 record since 2008 and working behind college football’s fourth-ranked scoring attack that is responsible for the ninth-most points through 5 games of any team in SEC history.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Commodores pay a visit to the Crimson Tide this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the most popular prediction models to get a picture of how exactly Alabama and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Who is favored?

Alabama is a 10.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Alabama at -430 and for Vanderbilt at +340 to win outright.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt implied score

The game’s implied score suggests a victory for the Crimson Tide over the Commodores, but not quite as close as the other models let on.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Alabama will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 33 to 22.

The updated betting lines correctly predicted the outright winner in 82.3 percent of games, but covered the spread in just 35 percent of games last weekend.

Alabama vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

As might be expected, the SP+ prediction model is siding with the Crimson Tide over the ‘Dores, but by a close margin that could leave the Tuscaloosa faithful a little nervous.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Vanderbilt outright, but by a projected score of just 29 to 27, and to win by an expected margin of only 2.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Crimson Tide a narrow 56 percent chance of outright victory while projecting it will be just a field goal better on the field.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 119-127 against the spread with a 48.4 win percentage.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

What kind of margin does the index see in this matchup?

Alabama is the big favorite over the Commodores in this one, coming out ahead in 74.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Vanderbilt as the presumptive winner in the remaining 25.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Give the Tide a touchdown over the Dores.

Alabama is projected to be 6.8 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 80.3 percent of all games and hit 38.7 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to pick the game

On the surface, Alabama looks like a comfortable favorite, playing at home, with revenge on its mind, and coming off a statement win at Georgia. But the models and the market tell a more nuanced story.

The Commodores aren’t catching anyone off guard this season. They enter Week 6 undefeated and rank among the top five nationally in scoring offense, averaging over 40 points per game.

Their high-tempo, high-scoring style gives them a legitimate shot to keep this within single digits, especially against an Alabama defense that has looked vulnerable at times.

Both teams’ recent trends point slightly toward the under. Alabama games have leaned lower-scoring under DeBoer, especially in SEC play, while Vanderbilt will likely face a tougher task trying to score at their usual pace in Tuscaloosa.

If you’re using these predictions to bet on the game, you should take...

Vanderbilt +10.5
Alabama to win -430
Bet under 55.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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