Army vs. Navy 2024 score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Army vs. Navy in the 2024 football classic from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Army vs. Navy 2024 football prediction / USA Today | Imagn

As college football’s greatest rivalry game kicks off this weekend, let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the 2024 Army vs. Navy Game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

No matter the records or the rankings, this game remains college football’s most legendary, as the battle between the nation’s two biggest military academies is loaded with passion, tradition, and pride, and the 2024 edition of the game is no different.

Army comes in as the defending AAC champion and winners of the last two against Navy, and in three of the last five with a dominant 11-1 record and the nation’s No. 1 ranked rushing attack.

Navy was a 6-0 football team to start out, but an ugly loss to Notre Dame derailed its season, dropping two straight and 3 of its next 5, but finishing 8-3 and third in the AAC standings.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Black Knights and Midshipmen square off in college football’s best rivalry game?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Army and Navy compare in this college football classic.

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Army vs. Navy Game 2024 score prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the Black Knights over the Midshipmen, but by a narrower margin than others have predicted.

SP+ predicts that Army will defeat Navy by a projected score of 32 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 8.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Black Knights a solid 70 percent chance of outright victory over the Midshipmen.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage.

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Army vs. Navy odds, how to pick the game

Army is a 6.5 point favorite against Navy, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for this historic matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 39.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Army at -245 and for Navy at +198 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Army -6.5
• Black Knights to win -245
• Bet over 39.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of the vast majority of bettors who are taking the Black Knights, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Army is getting 77 percent of bets to win the game and cover the spread.

The other 23 percent of wagers project Navy will either win outright in an upset, or keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other football prediction models also expect the Black Knights to take out the Midshipmen.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Army is the big favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 65.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

Those calculations leave Navy as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.1 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Army is projected to be 5.6 points better than Navy on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Army vs. Navy prediction 2024: What the analytics say

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How to watch the 2024 Army vs. Navy Game

When: Sat., Dec. 14
Where: Landover, Md.

Time: 3 p.m. Eastern
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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