Rece Davis picks Navy-North Texas winner in Week 10

Rece Davis picks the winner between North Texas and Navy in a critical Week 10 matchup out of the American Conference.

ESPN College GameDay's Rece Davis is picking North Texas to win against Navy in a critical Week 10 American Conference matchup. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

College football fans can expect fireworks when the undefeated Navy Midshipmen visit the North Texas Mean Green on Saturday. Both programs have been among the nation’s most productive offenses this season, each averaging more than 37 points per game while featuring two of the top quarterbacks in the Group of Five. North Texas enters the matchup with a 7-1 record, led by quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 608 yards and four touchdowns in a 54-20 win over Charlotte last week. Navy, still unbeaten at 7-0, is guided by dual-threat quarterback Blake Horvath, who leads the nation’s top rushing offense.

On Wednesday’s College GameDay podcast, ESPN analyst Rece Davis picked the Mean Green to win, highlighting their record-setting passing attack and home-field momentum. North Texas ranks sixth nationally in both total offense and passing yards per game while scoring a nation-best 46.1 points per contest. Navy’s triple-option attack ranks first in rushing offense but faces its toughest defensive test yet.

The matchup not only impacts the American Athletic Conference race but also offers a fascinating contrast in styles. It pits Navy’s ground-heavy approach against one of the country’s most explosive air attacks, with both sides riding long win streaks into Denton.

Rece Davis Predicts a North Texas Victory Over Undefeated Navy

Rece Davis said on the College GameDay podcast that North Texas’s versatility through the air would prove decisive against Navy’s run-first formula. “They have a great music program there, so they will be singing their victory song on Saturday,” Davis said. “Their only loss was against USF. Navy has yet to lose, but they’ve played the easiest schedule in the country. I think, wild game. I’m going to go with North Texas and say the Mean Green get the victory there.”

Davis’ pick reflects both momentum and matchup trends. North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has thrown for 2,458 yards with 21 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Running back Caleb Hawkins and wideout Wyatt Young have combined for more than 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. Navy’s Blake Horvath has anchored a top-20 scoring offense, rushing for 814 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 1,063 passing yards.

North Texas Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) has 2,468 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

Statistically, North Texas thrives when pushing tempo, averaging over 493 total yards per game. Navy ranks near the bottom nationally in pass defense, allowing 256.6 yards per game through the air, which could spell trouble against Mestemaker’s deep passing efficiency.

Davis also praised North Texas head coach Eric Morris, noting his quarterback development pedigree with names like Cam Ward and Patrick Mahomes. “He’s found some quarterbacks now,” Davis said. “If you think about who he’s touched, that list is long.”

Saturday’s game will determine whether Navy’s unblemished start can withstand one of college football’s most explosive offenses. The Mean Green will host the Midshipmen in Denton on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN Networks.