Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Auburn and Oklahoma square off in this Week 4 college football game and SEC opener for both teams, with our updated On SI prediction.

Oklahoma has already passed a major test, knocking off a ranked Michigan team at home, and remains undefeated heading into this SEC debut facing another huge trial against Auburn in the first of several very challenging conference games.

Jackson Arnold spearheads the Auburn offense, and will make a return of sorts back to Oklahoma, where he spent two seasons as a five-star quarterback prospect, before transferring this offseason and hoping to make a little statement of his own.

What can we expect as the Sooners welcome the Tigers in this SEC opener?

Here’s what you should watch for as Oklahoma and Auburn play face off in this Week 4 college football game, with our updated On SI prediction.

Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction: What to watch for

Auburn Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners football game prediction 2025 — Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. On the ground

The strength of Auburn’s offense has been its consistent ground attack, leaning on Arnold and a group of high-quality backs to move the chains.

The unit rumbled for 307 yards on the ground in a season-opening win over Baylor and accounts for 242 rushing yards per game on average, ranking 16th in the country.

Jeremiah Cobb is key to that production, rushing for 314 yards on the year while posting 6.8 yards per carry. Auburn as a team averages 5.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

Oklahoma is solid against the run, ranking No. 34 in FBS in rush defense by allowing opponents to net just over 96 yards per game on average.

2. Going deep

John Mateer has proven to be a revelation for the Oklahoma offense so far this season as the transfer quarterback has played himself into the early Heisman Trophy race.

Key to his production has been his efficiency, leading the SEC so far with 71 total completions and he tops the conference with 944 passing yards on the year.

Auburn’s relative weakness on defense is its secondary rotation, a group that ranks 117th nationally in EPA per pass defense and 85th in total output.

It allows 220 yards per game in the air while surrendering 7.3 yards per pass attempt and over 61 percent completion from opponents.

3. Players to watch

Auburn: WR Eric Singleton. The transfer wideout has quickly emerged as Arnold’s top target, catching 13 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns, rushing 5 times for 25 yards, but most importantly stretches the field with ease and can get a few past a very good Sooners secondary.

Oklahoma: QB John Mateer. The quarterback has 9 all-purpose touchdowns on the year, emerging as a blue-chip rushing threat who can scramble to create plays downfield or gain chunk yards on designed runs, but he’s prone to turnovers at times, throwing 3 interceptions, and he’s going against a decent Auburn edge rushing rotation.

Who is favored?

The sports books are predictably siding with the home team in this SEC opener.

Oklahoma is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn at home, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -250 and for Auburn at +202 to win outright.

Auburn vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins?

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Auburn Tigers football game prediction 2025 — Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Coming into the season, Auburn’s wide receiver room was projected to be one of the most productive in the SEC, if not in the country.

But so far, the Tigers’ downfield game has failed to generate much of any momentum, and it will struggle going against a Sooner defense that is No. 2 against the pass nationally and No. 1 in pass defense success rate.

Auburn’s ability to run the football, get an edge in the turnover battle, and come out with some timely defensive stops will give it a shot to make this a game.

Oklahoma’s defense is the best in college football in total efficiency, holding opponents to a 21 percent success rate on third and fourth down, is top five in run defense success rate, and has allowed no touchdowns in the red zone.

Where Auburn is good, Oklahoma is better.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 27-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Oklahoma vs. Auburn score prediction by expert model