ESPN computer predicts Auburn vs. Texas A&M football game winner

Auburn hits the road again this weekend, facing off against Texas A&M in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

This marks the second-straight road conference game for Auburn, which fell to 0-1 in SEC play after a seven-point loss at Oklahoma last weekend, and hoping to fine tune its protection after quarterback Jackson Arnold was sacked 10 times in that game.

Texas A&M returns from an idle weekend to kick off its SEC slate in this matchup, and is coming off a statement last-second win at Notre Dame the week prior, ranking 16th in the country with over 323 passing yards per game behind quarterback Marcel Reed.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M prediction

So far, the models are taking the side of the home team in their SEC debut, which could spell trouble for Hugh Freeze’s team early on.

Texas A&M has emerged as the favorite against Auburn in this game, coming out ahead in the majority 68.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner in the remaining 31.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Aggies came out ahead in 13,680 simulations of the contest, while Auburn edged out Texas A&M in the other 6,320 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to the final quarter at Kyle Field.

Texas A&M is projected to be just 4.7 points better than Auburn on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

Texas A&M: 68.4% chance to win
Auburn: 31.6% chance to win
Prediction: Texas A&M by 5

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Aggies to cover the spread against the Tigers in their SEC opener this weekend.

That’s because Texas A&M is a 6.5 point favorite against Auburn, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -230 and for Auburn at +195 to win outright.

Auburn vs. Texas A&M future projections

Texas A&M is among the top third of SEC teams when the computer went about simulating who has the best chance to win the conference championship.

The models forecast the Aggies will win the SEC title in just 3.5 percent of its simulations of that race entering this weekend.

But that number improves when calculating the College Football Playoff odds, as the Aggies make the postseason field in 44.9 percent of the index’s projections.

Texas A&M is projected to win 8.8 games this season, according to the models.

Auburn sits at 12th in the SEC championship projections, coming out on top in Atlanta in just 0.2 percent of the simulations.

Freeze’s team made the 12-team playoff field in 11.3 percent of the computer’s mock-ups.

And it projects the Tigers will win 7.0 games in 2025.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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