Boise State vs. UNLV prediction: Who wins, and why?

What you should watch for as Boise State and UNLV meet in the 2024 Mountain West Championship Game on Friday night, with our prediction for the matchup.

The calculus for Boise State is easy enough: win, and it’s in the College Football Playoff. Lose, and the Broncos could get bumped out of the top dozen by other Power Four hopefuls.

Likewise for UNLV, which would secure what the committee likely regards as the best win for any Group of Five team this year by beating their G5 favorite, but a loss puts the Rebels out for certain.

What can we expect as the Broncos welcome the Rebels in this matchup on Friday night?

Here’s what you should watch for as Boise State and UNLV square off in the Mountain West Championship Game, with our updated prediction.

Boise State vs. UNLV prediction: What to watch

How can Boise State win the game

It’s not exactly a secret what the Broncos have to do here.

Ashton Jeanty is college football’s most productive back by far, and is the beating heart of Boise State’s offense, totaling 2,288 rushing yards this season.

But he did struggle his first time out against UNLV, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry in the Broncos’ five-point win against the Rebels earlier this year, his lowest output of the year.

It will be interesting to watch how UNLV’s defensive front matches up against the Broncos’ offensive line in each respective unit’s effort to either contain or free up Jeanty on the ground.

Whoever wins that battle should win the game, and advance to the College Football Playoff.

How can UNLV win the game

Just repeat what it did the first time out.

In that game back in October, the Rebels were able to mostly prevent Jeanty from getting whatever he wanted, and they have the same personnel on hand to do it again.

UNLV enters the game ranked 10th nationally in rushing defense this season, allowing just over 104 yards per game on average, and surrenders just 3.4 yards per touch to opposing backs.

On the other side, the Rebels can pack a punch on the ground themselves.

Since making the highly-publicized switch from Matthew Sluka to Hajj-Malik Williams over the former’s NIL dispute, the latter has accounted for 26 touchdowns and the offense has been good for 38 points per game.

Williams threw for 1,735 yards and ran for 768 more, and UNLV is fourth nationally in rushing, amassing more than 254 yards on the ground per game.

Who is favored?

Boise State is a 4.5 point favorite against UNLV, according to the game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the game (Over -112, Under -108).

And it set the moneyline odds for Boise State at -192 and for UNLV at +158 to win outright.

Boise State vs. UNLV prediction: Who wins?

On a per-play basis, the Rebels figure to be the superior defense on the field in this game.

UNLV ranks 19th nationally by allowing 4.9 yards per play to opposing teams, while the Broncos average out surrendering 5.4 yards on defense, ranking 60th among 134 FBS teams.

Another potential game-changer on the field should be UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, who has finished with over 100 yards in 4 of his last 6 games.

But everything that’s on the line in this game, plus it being at home on the blue turf, is enough to still have confidence in an offense and a star player that has passed every test to this point.

College Football HQ picks ...

Boise State wins 34-31
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the over

More ... Boise State vs. UNLV score prediction by football model

How to watch the Mountain West Championship Game

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: Boise, Idaho

Time: 6 p.m. MT | 5 p.m. PT
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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