Boise State vs. UNLV: Mountain West Championship Game score prediction by expert football model

Boise State and UNLV are set to meet in the Mountain West Championship Game this week with the winner almost certainly advancing to the College Football Playoff. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

UNLV is on a four-game win streak, ranking fourth nationally in rushing output and 5th in FBS in scoring with almost 40 points per game, and just 6 combined points away from being undefeated, with one of those losses to the Broncos.

Boise State has been the selection committee’s favorite from the Group of Five from the beginning and just has to win this game in order to secure what should be a first-round bye as it would likely rank ahead of the Big 12 champion in the final poll.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Rebels and Broncos face off this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how Boise State and UNLV compare in the Mountain West Championship Game?

Boise State vs. UNLV score prediction

As expected, the projections are siding with the Broncos over the Rebels, but by a close margin.

SP+ predicts that Boise State will defeat UNLV by a projected score of 33 to 28 and will win the game by an expected margin of 4.6 points.

The model gives the Broncos a narrow 61 percent chance of outright victory over the Rebels.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 384-352-9 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 35-31-1 (53%) last weekend.

Boise State vs. UNLV odds, how to pick the game

Boise State is a 3.5 point favorite against UNLV, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel set the total at 58.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Boise State at -176 and for UNLV at +146 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

Boise State -3.5
Broncos to win -176
Bet over 58.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of the vast majority of bettors who expect the Broncos to take down the Rebels, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Boise State is getting nearly three-quarters of bets -- 74 percent of the total -- to win the Mountain West championship and cover the spread.

The other 26 percent of wagers project UNLV will either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models expect the Broncos to take down the Rebels, as well.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Boise State is the big favorite in the game, as the index projects it will come out ahead in 68.8 percent of the computer’s simulations for the game.

That leaves UNLV as the expected winner in the remaining 31.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Boise State is projected to be 7 points better than UNLV on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More ... Boise State vs. UNLV prediction: What the analytics say

College Football Playoff rankings for Championship Week

Oregon
Texas
Penn State
Notre Dame
Georgia
Ohio State
Tennessee
SMU
Indiana
Boise State
Alabama
Miami
Ole Miss
South Carolina
Arizona State
Iowa State
Clemson
BYU
Missouri
UNLV
Illinois
Syracuse
Colorado
Army
Memphis

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 SMU
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Penn State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Alabama at
No. 6 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 3 SMU

No. 10 Indiana at
No. 7 Georgia
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

How to watch the Mountain West Championship Game

When: Fri., Dec. 6
Where: Boise, Id.

Time: 6 p.m. MT | 5 p.m. PT
TV: Fox network

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