College football picks against the spread for Week 4 games

Let’s lock in our final predictions against the spread for the most important games on the Week 4 college football schedule this weekend.

How are we doing? Last weekend, College Football HQ went 3-4 in our predictions against the spread, but a better feeling 4-3 straight-up, wrongly expecting Clemson would avoid the upset at Georgia Tech and that Notre Dame could avoid the 0-2 start at home against Texas A&M.

For better or for worse, here are the picks against the spread we’re making this week and where we’re putting our money looking ahead to college football’s Week 4 action.

College football picks against the spread for Week 4 games

Lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, and are subject to change

Illinois at Indiana (-5.5)

College football predictions against the spread for Week 4 games — Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana is supremely well-coached and the more explosive offense on the field, and its front seven should have an advantage against an Illinois protection unit that ranks among the nation’s twenty-worst in pressure rate allowed.

And while the Hoosiers are averaging more than 300 rushing yards per game, the Illini front seven should present a credible challenge to that ground game, and the Illinois backs should find some angles. The Illini are 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog in the last two seasons.

ATS pick: Illinois +5.5

Coin flip: Illinois +5.5

Texas Tech at Utah (-2.5)

A pair of Big 12 title contenders in action in the conference opener, both the Red Raiders and Utes have been clobbering opponents up to now, but the quality of competition is about to get much more severe for both, making this likely a much lower-scoring game.

Utah could have an overall advantage in the trenches, as it usually does, and playing at home, but the quarterback stylings of Devon Dampier have so far returned more inconsistent results throwing the ball, which could be a problem against an expert Texas Tech secondary.

ATS pick: Texas Tech +2.5

Coin flip: Utah -2.5

Michigan (-2.5) at Nebraska

Granted, the Cornhuskers are getting good early results from an offense now being called by Dana Holgorsen, a big benefit for quarterback Dylan Raiola.

The former five-star prospect has already thrown 8 touchdown passes, 61 percent of his total output of 13 scores a year ago through just three games, and is yet to throw an interception.

Still, there are some legitimate concerns around Nebraska’s overall physicality on both lines of scrimmage dating back from the Cincinnati game which could re-emerge against Michigan’s stronger lines.

But the Wolverines have yet to prove they can generate a consistent-enough vertical game and come away with points against better defenses.

ATS pick: Nebraska +2.5

Coin flip: Nebraska +2.5

Tulane at Ole Miss (-12.5)

Whereas the previously-undefeated Bulls got hammered at Miami, the Green Wave are hoping for a better result at the Rebels.

Jake Retzlaff can make something happen. The former BYU quarterback who won 11 games a year ago has led Tulane to a 3-0 record, despite playing behind a line that ranks worse than 100th when allowing pressure.

That could emerge as a long-term problem in the game against an Ole Miss pressure group on defense that isn’t what it was a year ago, but can still bring some heat.

But the Rebels’ defense allowed 526 yards and 35 points in a 6-point win over Arkansas, suggesting they’ll let a passer of Retzlaff’s caliber make this closer than anticipated.

ATS pick: Tulane +12.5

Coin flip: Ole Miss -12.5

Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5)

Jackson Arnold makes his return to Oklahoma after the former five-star quarterback prospect bolted OU for Auburn as a transfer this offseason, and now he’s on a mission to prove he made the right decision.

Arnold has proven to be an able dual-threat so far and is dealing with a group of very promising receivers, but will the Sooners’ defense give him the same throwing lanes other opponents have until now?

Oklahoma’s secondary has been superb and its front seven rushers will limit Arnold’s ability to create situations with his legs and close his outside rushing outlets.

Conversely, the Auburn defensive front could have some consistent success against Oklahoma’s protection in front of John Mateer, who will have an advantage against the Tigers’ secondary, a relative weakness for this team right now. OU can definitely get a touchdown on this team.

ATS pick: Oklahoma -6.5

Coin flip: Auburn +6.5

Purdue at Notre Dame (-25.5)

It’s popular to throw in a bad word for the Notre Dame secondary after some lackluster play against the likes of Miami and Texas A&M, instrumental to its dismal 0-2 start.

Barry Odom has already proven he can put a better-coached product on the field for Purdue, which is getting some solid air under this offense, averaging more than 300 yards per game, and that could sneak up on the Irish back end defenders again.

But the Boilermakers should struggle to adequately contain the Notre Dame rushing attack, which will not only power this offense, but slow the game down and keep the score relatively close. ND wins by 20 here.

ATS pick: Purdue +25.5

Coin flip: Notre Dame -25.5

South Carolina at Missouri (-9.5)

LaNorris Sellers is questionable to suit up against Mizzou on the road after sustaining a concussion following a big hit in the loss to Vanderbilt last week.

His replacement, Luke Doty, is a sixth-year senior, but even with Sellers under center, this was going to be a tough task given the Gamecocks haven’t seen the results they expected with Mike Shula calling these plays, and how well Missouri has played up to now.

Beau Pribula at quarterback and Ahmad Hardy at tailback has been a winning formula for the Tiger offense and they should find angles against a Carolina defense that has missed a lot of that star talent that turned pro last spring.

ATS pick: Missouri -12.5

Coin flip: Missouri -12.5

Florida at Miami (-7.5)

Two straight losses, including a nightmare last-second defeat to then-unranked USF, make it easy to call Florida a team on the decline, but this is still a quality roster that fields a good offensive line, a promising quarterback, and a solid run stop.

Promise is the key word around DJ Lagway, who, despite all that potential, has so far proven unable to generate a consistent downfield threat behind that protection yet. Some of the returns have been disastrous, like that five-interception game at LSU last week.

Florida is also struggling to get enough of a pass rush going and now lines up against a Miami protection alignment that has kept Carson Beck’s jersey clean.

There’s a lot of production on this Hurricanes offense, and it’s hard to see a situation where the Gators are able to stop all of it.

ATS pick: Miami -7.5

Coin flip: Florida +7.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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