Predicting college football's most likely first-time Playoff teams in 2025

There’s a first time for everything, and given how few college football teams have made the playoff so far, and how much greater chance there is to make it after the field expanded to 12 teams, we could see some more first-timers in this year’s title push, too.

So far in the roughly decade-long existence of the format, just 21 programs have earned a place in the College Football Playoff, but last season after the field tripled in size, we saw six brand new entrants: Tennessee, Penn State, Arizona State, Indiana, SMU, and Boise State.

Looking at the potential field in 2025, college football should have no shortage of potential teams looking to make their debut appearance in the playoff, including some of the sport’s blue-bloods who are yet to crack the code.

Which teams have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff for the first time this season? Here are the most likely to make the jump in 2025.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Miami Hurricanes

Predicting ollege football's first-time Playoff teams in 2025 — Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Miami last year: 10-3

CFP odds: +198

Why Miami will make it: The addition of two-year starter Carson Beck at quarterback behind one of the country’s more experienced lines, a strong backfield to balance out this offense, and what should be an improved defensive rotation after a solid transfer effort and signing the ACC’s top recruiting class.

Why Miami won’t make it: Non-conference games against Notre Dame and Florida, a home game against Louisville, and road trips to Virginia Tech, SMU, and Pittsburgh could derail the Hurricanes’ standing in the committee’s eyes if anything goes wrong.

Texas A&M Aggies

Predicting college football's first-time Playoff teams in 2025 — Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Texas A&M last year: 8-5

CFP odds: +235

Why Texas A&M will make it: Marcel Reed returns at the helm of what should be an agile offense with all five blockers returning alongside a talented backfield and intriguing receiver transfers to spread the field, and if the Aggies can impress in games at Notre Dame, LSU, and Texas.

Why Texas A&M won’t make it: Those road games can go the wrong way very easily, especially if a defense that struggled against the run and against better passing opponents a year ago doesn’t make a demonstrative improvement.

Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State last year: 9-4

CFP odds: +440

Why Kansas State will make it: Once again, the Big 12 is the most competitive Power Four conference at the top, and the Wildcats have Avery Johnson returning for Year 2 as the starting quarterback and Dylan Edwards manning the backfield once again, and a defense that held Big 12 foes to 5 yards per play that brings back key contributors up front.

Why Kansas State won’t make it: The Wildcats play a tougher schedule this time around, with games at Utah, at Kansas, and at Baylor, and if they don’t beat Iowa State in the opener, they may not have a win against a ranked opponent when all is said and done.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois last year: 10-3

CFP odds: +540

Why Illinois will make it: Don’t call Illinois “this year’s Indiana” because no one should be surprised if the Illini take a big step forward in 2025, returning 16 starters, including quarterback Luke Altmyer working behind one of the Big Ten’s top offensive lines and boasting a defense that improved its scoring output by more than a TD last year.

Why Illinois won’t make it: The loss of receiver Pat Bryant could cut into this offense’s production, there is some work to be done filling vacancies in the defensive front line, and there are home dates against Ohio State and USC with road dates at Indiana and Washington that could trip the Illini up.

Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss last year: 10-3

CFP odds: +198

Why Ole Miss will make it: It’s within the realm of possibility the Rebels just lose two games this season, and it’ll be hard to keep a two-loss SEC team out of the playoff. Austin Simmons has shown promise as the replacement quarterback and he’ll have a talented group of receivers to throw to.

Why Ole Miss won’t make it: There’s a tough midseason stretch with dates against LSU, then at Georgia and Oklahoma in consecutive weeks, and at home against South Carolina, and there are plenty of questions around a defense that, while it improved last season, replaces an expected two starters.

Baylor Bears

Baylor last year: 8-5

CFP odds: +520

Why Baylor will make it: If prior season momentum exists, the Bears have it after winning their final six games, and Dave Aranda has said this is this best team. Sawyer Robertson returns under center after hitting over 3,000 yards passing with 32 total TDs and lead rusher Bryson Washington is back after establishing rushing records for a freshman and scoring 12 times.

Why Baylor won’t make it: Early games against Auburn and SMU could throw this team off course if they don’t go well, and there’s a chance the Bears don’t play a ranked opponent for the last six weeks of the season, which limits opportunities for this team to make a good impression when the committee is paying the most attention.

Florida Gators

Florida last year: 8-5

CFP odds: +340

Why Florida will make it: The play of quarterback DJ Lagway, the return of key skill threats in the backfield like Jadan Baugh and at receiver with Eugene Wilson, and a defense that dramatically improved late last season, holding its final four opponents to 13 points per game.

Why Florida won’t make it: Lagway is already injury prone, and any setback could prove critical for the Gators’ offense. Likewise with any issue on a receiving corps that has also dealt with injury issues this preseason. And games against Texas and Georgia that threaten to expose more of a gulf between Florida and its better SEC rivals.

Tulane Green Wave

Tulane last year: 9-5

CFP odds: +920

Why Tulane will make it: Aside from Boise State, the Wave looks like the Group of Five’s best chance to make the field. It’ll either be the champion of the Mountain West or of the AAC, and Tulane is the favorite to win the latter. This team played close in losses to OU and K-State, and now has a chance to impress with a date against an Ole Miss team in transition.

Why Tulane won’t make it: Losing to either Duke or Northwestern early in the year before the Ole Miss game will haunt the Green Wave. If we presume the Rebels win that matchup and Tulane loses one of those two other games, the committee won’t have to think between a Boise State squad that likely won’t have that second loss.