College football predictions for Week 3 games by expert model includes a big upset

College Football HQ locks in our final predictions for the most important and consequential games on the Week 3 schedule on Saturday.

Several notable games kick off the Week 3 college football schedule, including a matchup featuring one surprise playoff contender against another CFP hopeful, two classic SEC rivalry games, and the national championship runner-up looking to avoid an 0-2 start against a ranked opponent.

Let’s take a turn around college football and lock in our predictions for the biggest Week 3 games on the schedule with a little help from the College Football Power Index.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

College football predictions for Week 3 games

Oregon at Northwestern

Oregon: 94.7%
Northwestern: 5.3%

College Football HQ picks: Oregon.

This should be another big win for the Ducks, whose offense is yet to be challenged in two games, and especially as the Wildcats lost lead rusher Cam Porter for the season with an injury.

College football predictions for Week 3 games by expert model — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Clemson at Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech: 55.9%
Clemson: 44.1%

College Football HQ picks: Clemson.

Georgia Tech is a popular upset pick this weekend given Clemson’s struggles on offense despite being one of college football’s most promising units, but we still project the Tigers should have an edge throwing the ball.

Oklahoma at Temple

Oklahoma: 84.5%
Temple: 15.5%

College Football HQ picks: Oklahoma.

There’s some risk of a trap here going on the road after the big win over Michigan last week, but the Sooners shouldn’t be in too much trouble. Still, the Temple offense has outscored opponents 97-17.

Wisconsin at Alabama

Alabama: 88.9%
Wisconsin: 11.1%

College Football HQ picks: Alabama.

Wisconsin’s defensive front could present the Crimson Tide’s offense with some trouble early on in this game, and could throw off their rhythm moving the ball, which might cut into the final margin, but Alabama has the skill weapons to get behind the Badgers’ pass defenders.

Central Michigan at Michigan

Michigan: 95.5%
Central Michigan: 4.5%

College Football HQ picks: Michigan.

Nothing too dramatic here, as the Wolverines should get back over .500 after the Oklahoma loss against a Chippewas squad that is yet to score 20 points in a game.

South Alabama at Auburn

Auburn: 93.4%
South Alabama: 6.6%

College Football HQ picks: Auburn.

Jackson Arnold and the Tigers’ receivers should find plenty of angles against the Jaguars’ secondary.

Louisiana at Missouri

Missouri: 94.9%
Louisiana: 5.1%

College Football HQ picks: Missouri

Beau Pribula looks like the answer at quarterback, posting over 600 yards passing in two games and Mizzou is coming off a statement win over Kansas, coming in as big favorites against the Cajuns.

Villanova at Penn State

Penn State: 99%
Villanova: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Penn State.

No drama here for the Nittany Lions, but they would do well to get a little more oomph from an offense that brings back too much talent and should be better at the wide receiver position.

Georgia at Tennessee

Tennessee: 51.4%
Georgia: 48.6%

College Football HQ picks: Tennessee.

We’re going with the upset in this classic SEC rivalry, as the Vols are in position to snap an eight-game losing streak against Georgia, given the Bulldogs’ listless offensive showing thus far and how well Joey Aguilar already has the Volunteers’ offense working on all cylinders.

Oregon State at Texas Tech

Texas Tech: 93.6%
Oregon State: 6.4%

College Football HQ picks: Texas Tech.

The Red Raiders have scored more than 60 points in both games so far this season, and while the Beavers are 0-2 coming into this one, they have a talented quarterback in Maalik Murphy, who has over 6oo yards in two games.

Iowa State at Arkansas State

Iowa State: 89.4%
Arkansas State: 10.6%

College Football HQ picks: Iowa State.

Another cupcake game early this season, but the Cyclones have impressed so far with wins over Kansas State and then a close one over rival Iowa.

UTEP at Texas

Texas: 99%
UTEP: 1%

College Football HQ picks: Texas.

So, you’re saying there’s a chance, UTEP? Well, no, there isn’t, but this game is an interesting battle of former No. 1 quarterback recruits, as Arch Manning faces off against Malachi Nelson, who bounced from USC to Boise State and now to the Miners.

USF at Miami

Miami: 72.2%
USF: 27.8%

College Football HQ picks: Miami.

What USF has done so far is quite impressive, becoming the only team in college football to beat two AP ranked opponents. But beating the Hurricanes to get that third will be considerably harder given how many weapons Miami has to throw at them.

Ohio at Ohio State

Ohio State: 95.4%
Ohio: 4.6%

College Football HQ picks: Ohio State.

Ohio was the MAC champion a year ago, but the Buckeyes are still loaded.

Western Michigan at Illinois

Illinois: 95.9%
Western Michigan: 4.1%

College Football HQ picks: Illinois.

Western Michigan is yet to win a game and hasn’t since November, and now goes on the road against an Illini squad that brings back most of its production and is coming off a huge win at Duke last weekend.

Arkansas at Ole Miss

Ole Miss: 73.7%
Arkansas: 26.3%

College Football HQ picks: Ole Miss.

Ole Miss is already up a game in SEC play and needs its ground game and quarterback Austin Simmons to be on point going up against an Arkansas offense that has looked stealthy, admittedly against overmatched opponents thus far.

Florida at LSU

LSU: 61.6%
Florida: 38.4%

College Football HQ picks: LSU.

Florida won’t wilt in the SEC opener despite last week’s stunning loss against USF, given they have the manpower to push bodies around on both lines of scrimmage, but LSU has the offense that can strike quicker and more often.

Texas A&M at Notre Dame

Notre Dame: 71.2%
Texas A&M: 28.8%

College Football HQ picks: Notre Dame.

National title runner-up Notre Dame is already backed into a corner and facing an 0-2 start if this goes wrong, and the Aggies bring on a potent offense led by quarterback Marcel Reed, but the Irish have an edge running the ball, if they remember to do it, unlike they did in the loss to Miami last time out.

Vanderbilt at South Carolina

South Carolina: 65.1%
Vanderbilt: 34.9%

College Football HQ picks: South Carolina.

The SEC opener for both teams, the Gamecocks need to get a little more going on offense after last week’s sluggish effort, especially going against a Commodores attack led by quarterback Diego Pavia.

Utah at Wyoming

Utah: 92.8%
Wyoming: 7.2%

College Football HQ picks: Utah.

Utah has outscored UCLA and Cal Poly by a combined 106-19, clearly getting some early good returns on offense with Devon Dampier at the helm at quarterback, but they have to avoid the trap this weekend with the Big 12 opener against Texas Tech up next.