ESPN computer predicts college football's 12 national title hopefuls in 2025

Sifting through the pile of ESPN analytics and team rankings, we get a preview of what 12 college football teams are in position to win it all in 2025.

These college football teams have the best shot at the national title in 2025, when combing through the ESPN rankings. / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

A turning point in the preseason is here, as ESPN revealed its full 136-team college football rankings, and now we have our first predictions regarding which teams have the best chance to make the playoff and work towards a national championship.

Predictably, the SEC and Big Ten dominated the top of the rankings, occupying 8 of the 10 top spots and the SEC alone taking 10 of the top 16 places.

Football Power Index then used its prediction and analytical models to calculate which teams have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff field.

Let’s take a look at the schools in the running for the 2025 season.

Best chance to make College Football Playoff

Arch Manning leads a Texas team that has designs on winning the SEC championship, and more, in 2025. / Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

1. Texas ─ 83.9 percent

2. Georgia ─ 78.6 percent

3. Ohio State ─ 70.6 percent

4. Alabama ─ 66.2 percent

5. Penn State ─ 63.8 percent

6. Oregon ─ 57.5 percent

7. Clemson ─ 47.3 percent

8. Miami ─ 46.3 percent

9. Notre Dame ─ 45.6 percent

10. Tennessee ─ 38.5 percent

11. Texas A&M ─ 34.3 percent

12. Ole Miss ─ 30.7 percent

But those are just the raw numbers, and don’t take into account the unique methods and qualifications the selection committee uses to pick their teams.

For instance, there are no Big 12 schools or Group of Five selections, at least one of which each have to be included in the final 12-team field, per College Football Playoff rules.

Taking that into account, the favorites coming out of the Big 12 are Kansas State, which has a 22.2 percent chance to make the playoff, followed by Arizona State at 16.1 percent, and Kansas in third place at 13.4 percent.

Boise State, ranked No. 40 overall in the 136-team poll, is once again the leader in the Group of Five, with a 25.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Tulane is the favorite from the AAC in the preseason, with a 24.3 percent shot to make the field, and is considered the No. 36 overall team in the ESPN rankings.

Memphis is behind the Green Wave among AAC hopefuls, but very far down in the national rankings, sitting at No. 65 as a team, with a 6.5 percent shot at the CFP.

UNLV is the second favorite from the Mountain West, ranked No. 42 in the full national team poll, with a 21.3 percent chance to qualify for the playoff.

─ Ohio State continues to edge out Penn State among Big Ten selections, despite the national champion Buckeyes losing a ton of on-field talent and both coordinators, and the Nittany Lions’ returning offensive core.

─ Alabama is getting some high praise this preseason from the ESPN analytics, boasting a very strong offensive line, credible receiving threats, and a potent defensive front seven, even if Kalen DeBoer is starting from scratch at quarterback.

─ Texas and Georgia continue to lead the way in the SEC, the former with Arch Manning taking over a blue-chip roster, and the latter installing some key transfers at receiver to help new quarterback Gunner Stockton.

─ Clemson and Miami predictably carry the banner for the ACC, both with intriguing prospects at quarterback, as Cade Klubnik returns with more on his plate leading this offense, and Carson Beck swapping Georgia for the Hurricanes.

─ Notre Dame should stay in the mix this season, returning a competent offensive line and gifted defensive rotation, but with a big question at quarterback after Riley Leonard’s departure and the sudden loss of his heir apparent, Steve Angeli, who transferred to Syracuse this spring.

─ Preseason hope springs eternal once again for Texas A&M, which finds itself among the Football Power Index’s playoff contenders and surprisingly the No. 8 overall team in the country, a position we regarded as overvalued.

─ Likewise for Tennessee, which has to endure a sudden and serious change at quarterback after Nico Iamaleava, who was set to take a bigger role this year, bolted, and given lead rusher Dylan Sampson’s exit and some turnover on defense.

Best chance to win the national title

Georgia is among college football's legitimate national championship contenders in 2025. / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

1. Texas ─ 24.1 percent

2. Georgia ─ 17.9 percent

3. Ohio State ─ 10.8 percent

T-3. Alabama ─ 10.8 percent

5. Penn State ─ 7.0 percent

6. Oregon ─ 4.3 percent

7. Clemson ─ 2.8 percent

8. Notre Dame ─ 2.7 percent

T-8. Miami ─ 2.7 percent

10. Texas A&M ─ 2.3 percent

T-10. Tennessee ─ 2.3 percent

─ Texas looks like the team to beat this year, boasting elite receiving talent and a physical defense that has the tools to muscle its way to an SEC championship, but how well will Manning take the reins on this offense full time?

─ A similar question for Georgia, as Stockton takes over for good from Beck, but at least those tougher SEC games they played on the road last year are set for the between the hedges this time around, a decisive home field edge that could prove critical.

─ Julian Sayin looks like the man to replace Will Howard at quarterback as Ohio State defends its national title, even if Ryan Day doesn’t care for that kind of language, but there’s so much turnover on the sidelines and around the lines of scrimmage that it wouldn’t be surprising if we don’t see the Buckeyes play for the Big Ten title again.

─ Ty Simpson could be the QB1 for the Crimson Tide, and while he finds his way, there’s plenty of talent on the rest of this roster to keep them in contention for the SEC title.

─ Penn State and Oregon are in a close battle for the apparent No. 2 position in the Big Ten, but could both emerge as genuine contenders to outgun Ohio State again this year, even if the Ducks have more turnover than the Nittany Lions do on offense.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

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