David Pollack gives score prediction, picks road underdog winner in Week 8 SEC game

Pollack picks LSU to edge Vanderbilt 24–21, citing the Tigers’ defense and road poise.

College football analyst David Pollack picked the LSU Tigers to win this weekend against the Vanderbilt Commodores. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

No. 10 LSU travels to face No. 17 Vanderbilt on Saturday in a matchup that holds rare meaning for both teams this deep into October. The Tigers enter at 5-1 after a hard-fought 20-10 win over South Carolina, while the Commodores, also 5-1, return from a bye with a chance to secure a second win this season over a top-15 opponent.

Vanderbilt’s turnaround under head coach Clark Lea has been one of the SEC’s biggest surprises. The Commodores are favored by 2.5 points, marking the first time since 1948 they have been favored against LSU and the first time since at least 1978 they have been favored over a ranked opponent. Despite the new spotlight, Vanderbilt’s challenge is substantial. The Commodores rank seventh nationally in scoring at 43.2 points per game, but now face an LSU defense that allows just 11.8 points per contest, fifth-best in the country.

College football analyst David Pollack shared his pick on the See Ball Get Ball podcast, and his confidence leaned toward the road team. “I think LSU’s defense, with Weeks and company flying around, can cover on the outside, play a lot of man, be very aggressive, and hit Pavia. I like LSU,” Pollack said. “I don’t think this is a high-scoring game, though. I think this is a 24–21 type of game.”

Pollack acknowledged the unusual scenario of Vanderbilt entering as a favorite. “Speaking of rarities, let’s go to the rarity that is Vanderbilt being favored against a top-10 opponent for, I think, the first time since like the late ’70s,” he said. “There’s no reason for them to be favored against a ranked team before this year, but this year’s a little different, coming off a bye week.”

LSU Defense, Turnover Battle Could Decide the Outcome

Pollack focused heavily on LSU’s ability to limit mistakes from quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who has thrown interceptions in 11 of his last 19 games. “At what point is Garrett Nussmeier just a guy? He’s got 11 picks in 19 games, multiple picks in five of them,” Pollack said. “He’s the heartbeat of the squad, but at some point you’ve got to stop turning the football over.”

Nussmeier has thrown for 1,411 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions this season. His top target, tight end Trey’Dez Green, broke out last week against South Carolina with 119 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions.

LSU Tigers tight end Trey'Dez Green (14) had a big game last week against South Carolina, catching eight passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Pollack believes that connection must remain central to LSU’s offense but also emphasized that the Tigers’ defense gives them a margin for error that few SEC teams possess. “They don’t give up big plays, they don’t give up a lot of points. I can’t make mistakes. I’ve got to be extremely smart with the football,” he said.

LSU ranks among the top 25 nationally in both total and rushing defense. That discipline will be tested against a Vanderbilt offense led by quarterback Diego Pavia, who has accounted for 1,761 total yards and 16 touchdowns. Pavia has guided one of the most balanced attacks in the country, averaging 467.5 yards per game, but Pollack expects LSU’s speed and physicality to disrupt his rhythm.

Vanderbilt’s Home Advantage and LSU’s Path Forward

Vanderbilt’s defense has also been a strength, particularly against the run, ranking 16th in the nation at just 90.7 yards allowed per game. However, penalties have been an issue, as the Commodores rank 115th in penalty yards per game at 68.0. Pollack pointed out that playing in Nashville rather than Baton Rouge could favor LSU by reducing the likelihood of self-inflicted mistakes.

“I think if I’m LSU, I’m very thankful that I don’t have to play in a loud atmosphere that’s going to be deafening,” he said. “Because of that, I don’t think they’ll make as many mistakes, I don’t think they’ll have as many false starts, as many penalties.”

Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Clark Lea has his program off to a 5-1 start this season. | David Leong-Imagn Images

The Commodores are aiming for their first victory over multiple top-15 opponents in a single season. With upcoming games against Missouri and Texas, the home stretch could determine whether Vanderbilt remains in the College Football Playoff conversation. Still, Pollack’s analysis centers on LSU’s experience, defensive depth, and ability to control tempo. “Because of Green, I think they win this game,” he said.

Both teams have plenty at stake, but Pollack believes LSU’s defense and composure on the road will carry the Tigers to a narrow victory. LSU will face Vanderbilt on Saturday at noon ET on ABC.