David Pollack predicts winner, score in Miami-Florida State game

Miami’s defense earns David Pollack’s trust as he forecasts a 30-24 win over Florida State.

College football media personality David Pollack predicted the Miami Hurricanes to win against the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. | Kirsten Fiscus/Advertiser via Imagn Content Services, LLC

When Miami and Florida State meet under the lights in Tallahassee, it is rarely short of drama. This year’s primetime showdown between the Hurricanes and Seminoles carries even more weight, as both programs arrive at Doak Campbell Stadium ranked in the top 20 and fighting for ACC positioning. For Florida State, the sting of a double-overtime loss at Virginia still lingers. For Miami, the chance to cement its status as the state’s top program sits right in front of it.

David Pollack added fuel to the buildup this week on his See Ball Get Ball podcast. The former ESPN college football analyst tabbed Miami as the team to beat, predicting the Hurricanes will walk away with a 30-24 victory. His reasoning centered on the play in the trenches, pointing to Miami’s defensive front, led by Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor, as the key difference.

“I think Miami wins this football game. I think their lines of scrimmage take care of business,” Pollack said, before acknowledging the challenge of facing a motivated Florida State squad at home. “Give me the No. 1 team in the country. Give me the U, 30–24.”

The stage is set for one of the most meaningful chapters in this rivalry in a decade. With Miami undefeated and Florida State still in the playoff hunt despite its loss, the outcome Saturday night could define the season for both sides.

Pollack Sees Miami’s Defensive Front As Decisive Factor

Pollack broke down the matchup with detail, highlighting the areas where he believes Miami holds the upper hand. His analysis started with the Seminoles’ explosive offense, which leads the nation with 600 yards per game and ranks second in rushing at 336.3 yards per game. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has shown flashes of brilliance, but Pollack pointed out his vulnerability under pressure, noting his struggles against blitz-heavy defenses and turnover issues in drop-back situations.

That plays directly into Miami’s strength. The Hurricanes rank seventh among Power Four teams in pressure rate and inside the top 15 nationally in blitz percentage. With Bain and Mesidor anchoring the edges, Pollack emphasized how disruptive Miami can be without needing to rely on stunts or twists up front.

Miami football's Rueben Bain Jr. (4) is part of a ferocious defensive front that has paved the way for the Hurricanes' hot start to the season. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

He also singled out the challenge of slowing down wide receiver Malachi Toney, calling him a “jitterbug” capable of breaking tackles in space, but maintained that Miami’s physical defensive line gives them an edge over Florida State’s rhythm offense.

“The No. 1 question for me is tackling,” Pollack said, pointing to both teams’ inconsistency in the open field. But in his eyes, Miami’s ability to win at the line of scrimmage outweighs the Seminoles’ offensive firepower. That belief ultimately shaped his prediction, giving the Hurricanes the nod in a tight contest.

Playoff Stakes Heighten Rivalry Atmosphere

Beyond the tactical breakdown, Pollack underscored the broader implications of Saturday’s clash. He labeled it a “must-win” game for Florida State’s playoff hopes, given a schedule that does not feature many chances to add quality wins. The loss to Virginia may not completely sink the Seminoles, but another stumble would likely derail their path to the College Football Playoff. “The bad losses are the albatrosses,” Pollack explained, stressing how damaging defeats can weigh on the committee’s decisions.

For Miami, a win would validate head coach Mario Cristobal’s claim from last season that the program had reclaimed supremacy in the state. After beating Florida two weeks ago, the Hurricanes have momentum and a defense that has proven difficult to solve.

Miami football quarterback Carson Beck (11) and the Hurricanes could move up to No. 1 in the AP Poll with a win against Florida State. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

With quarterback Carson Beck steering an offense that has balanced production between the pass and run, the Hurricanes enter the rivalry with a clear chance to prove their trajectory is real.

The Seminoles will try to spoil that surge and reassert themselves in the rivalry. But if Pollack’s prediction proves correct, Miami will leave Tallahassee with its fifth straight victory of the season and strengthen its grip on the national spotlight.

The Hurricanes and Seminoles will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ABC.