Miami vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bet for CFP National Championship

The stage is set for the College Football National Championship on Monday, as the Indiana Hoosiers are aiming to complete an undefeated season when they take on the Miami Hurricanes.

The path to the final has been very different for both of these teams, as the Hurricanes (the No. 10 seed) upset Texas A&M and Ohio State before winning as a favorite against the Ole Miss Rebels in the semifinals.

Carson Beck and the Hurricanes came up with some big offensive drives against Ole Miss, but their defense has been the story of the playoff, allowing three points to the Aggies and just 14 to the Buckeyes in the first two rounds.

Can the Hurricanes slow down presumptive No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza and a potent Indiana attack?

The Hoosiers have not lost this season, and they also knocked off Ohio State recently, winning the Big Ten title. Indiana’s playoff run has been nothing short of dominant:

Quarterfinals: 38-3 win over Alabama
Semifinals: 56-22 win over Oregon

Now, Curt Cignetti’s group will look to complete an unbelievable season to put Indiana officially on the map as a college football powerhouse.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Monday’s national title game.

Miami vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Miami +8.5 (-110)
Indiana -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Miami: +270
Indiana: -340

Total

47.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami vs. Indiana How to Watch

Date: Monday, Jan. 19
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Miami record: 13-2
Indiana record: 15-0

Miami vs. Indiana Best College Football Prop Bet

Fernando Mendoza OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-174)

This season, Mendoza has thrown multiple scores in 10 of his 15 games, and I think he’s a great bet to do so against Miami on Monday.

Even though the Hurricanes have allowed just two total passing scores in the College Football Playoff, Mendoza has been on a different level this season. The Heisman Trophy winner has thrown for eight scores and no picks in his two playoff games, and he’s cleared this prop in four of his last five appearances.

Miami did allow 277 passing yards to Trinidad Chambliss in the semifinals, so there’s certainly a chance that Mendoza has a big game through the air on Monday.

Miami vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Miami’s defense may be the best unit that the Hoosiers have faced this season, but I am worried about the Hurricanes keeping up on the offensive end since Beck has played two pedestrian games so far in the College Football Playoff, throwing for less than 200 yards against both Texas A&M and Ohio State.

Indiana has dominated its opponents in the playoff, and it only has three wins all season long that were by fewer than nine points. So, winning at margin has not been an issue for the Hoosiers.

These are two of the best teams in the country in EPA/Play (Miami is 11th, Indiana is fourth), but the Hoosiers have a distinct advantage in the running game both on offense and defense.

Indiana is 32nd in the country in EPA/Rush and 13th in success rate on run plays while the Miami defense is just 79th in the country in EPA/Rush. On the defensive side, Indiana is 23rd in EPA/Rush while Miami clocks in at No. 98.

I think that may put a little too much pressure on Beck, and we’ve seen the Indiana defense give better quarterbacks (Ty Simpson and Dante Moore) fits so far in the College Football Playoff.

Miami has pulled off several big upsets this season, but I think the run ends here. Give me the Hoosiers to cover and complete an undefeated season.

Pick: Indiana -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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