Egg Bowl 2025: Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert model

Egg Bowl 2025 is here, and with it comes not only a chance for Ole Miss to take another step towards its first College Football Playoff appearance, but with questions around its head coach.

Lane Kiffin has brought the Rebels to this point, but now rumors abound that he could jump ship for either LSU or Florida right as he sits on the verge of putting the program in the 12-team field.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Rebels and Bulldogs meet on Black Friday?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Mississippi State compare in this Rivalry Week college football game.

Egg Bowl 2025 score prediction

As expected, the model favors the Rebels over the Bulldogs, and more than double digits.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Mississippi State by a projected score of 37 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 14.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Rebels a strong 82 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also side with the Rebels, but not by as much as this projection does.

Ole Miss is a 7.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -290 and for Mississippi State at +235 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Even with the distractions around Lane Kiffin, there is no reason to suspect the Rebels are entering a potential upset at the hands of a rival that has one win in SEC competition this season.

Strange things can happen in the Egg Bowl, and the Rebels have not surpassed 27 points in any of the last three meetings.

Still, they have a perceived advantage everywhere on the field and should find plenty of angles against a Bulldog defense that is among the worst in the SEC in most categories.

College Football HQ predicts: Ole Miss wins, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks