ESPN computer predicts Oregon vs. Penn State football game winner

Oregon goes across the country to take on Penn State in what could prove to be college football’s most impactful game this weekend. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from a college football analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Oregon has wrecked everything in its path so far, outscoring opponents by an average of 52 to 9 each time out and ranks 10th nationally in rushing output per game, with over 255 yards on average, and Dante Moore is completing 75 percent of his pass attempts.

But the Ducks will face their toughest test yet against a Penn State defense that is third among FBS teams by allowing opponents to score just 5.7 points per game, while Drew Allar and an experienced offense are scoring more than 44 points on average.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oregon vs. Penn State prediction

The models calculate this Big Ten clash will come down to the narrowest of margins, but are still giving the home side the benefit of the doubt this week.

Penn State is the close favorite in the game over Oregon, coming out ahead in the slight majority 51.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves the Ducks as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.9 percent of sims.

In total, the Nittany Lions came out ahead in the majority 10,220 of the computer’s simulations of the contest, while Oregon edged out Penn State in the other 9,780 predictions.

How do those projections translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect this one to come down possibly to the last play.

Penn State is projected to be just 0.2 points better than Oregon on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

Penn State: 51.1% chance to win
Oregon: 48.9% chance to win
Prediction: Penn State by 1

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Nittany Lions to cover the point spread over the Ducks.

That’s because Penn State is a 3.5 point favorite against Oregon, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.And it set the moneyline odds for Penn State at -165 and for Oregon at +140 to win outright.

Penn State vs. Oregon future projections

Oregon is outpacing all other Big Ten teams when it comes to its chance to win the conference championship and qualify for the College Football Playoff.

It ranks first in the league with a 25.7 percent chance to win the Big Ten for what would be a second-straight year, with Ohio State right behind at 24.1 percent.

Oregon is second behind the Buckeyes with a 71.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff and has a 13 percent shot to win the national championship.

The computers predict Oregon will win 10.4 games this season.

Penn State is sixth among Big Ten teams with an 11.6 percent chance to win the conference championship.

And ranks fifth, just ahead of Michigan, with a 39.5 percent shot to make the 12-team postseason field, with 2.6 percent odds to win the national title.

The model projects the Nittany Lions will win 9.3 games in 2025.

More: ESPN updates Top 25 college football rankings for Week 5

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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