Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

A pair of SEC rivals square off this weekend as No. 20 Tennessee looks to end a 10-game losing streak on the road against Florida as Week 13 college football action kicks off on Saturday.

Tennessee has split its last four games, falling to 7-3 overall with a 3-3 mark in SEC play, seemingly out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Florida is in the midst of a full-spectrum transition as a program after dumping Billy Napier, sitting at 3-7 with a 2-5 record against SEC opponents, and losing four of its last five games.

Florida vs. Tennessee score prediction

We turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Volunteers and Gators compare, and so far it looks like the road team will emerge as a considerable favorite.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Florida outright by a projected score of 33 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.4 points in the process.

The model gives the Vols a solid 72 percent chance of victory over the Gators.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 320-305 against the spread with a 51.2 win percentage.

Last week, it was 34-24 (58.6%) in its picks against the spread, its second-best showing of the 2025 season.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also prefer the Vols in this matchup, but by a more narrow margin.

Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Florida on the road, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -184 and for Florida at +154 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Florida is out of the running for a bowl game and its determination to put up a fight is an open question with precious little to play for aside from pride.

Conversely, the Vols are still in the mix for a good bowl and playing some of the more explosive offense in college football this season, albeit with a penchant for the occasional turnover.

Tennessee -3.5
Vols to win -184
Take the under

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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