Florida vs. Texas A&M prediction: Who wins, and why?

Florida got back in the win column with a big upset last weekend and now looks to make it two straight against the Lone Star State in a key SEC matchup against Texas A&M. Here is what you should watch for in the game, with our updated On SI prediction.

A week ago, the Gators dramatically ended their three-game losing streak by pulling out a huge upset over then-9th ranked, and now unranked, Texas, but this offense is still yet to eclipse the 30-point mark in any game since the season-opener against Long Island.

Florida put up 29 points against a Longhorns defense filled with elite playmakers, a considerable achievement given the unit hadn’t surpassed 16 points in a game against an FBS opponent until then.

Texas A&M averages nearly five touchdowns per game, and is undefeated through five games for the first time since 2016. It opened the season with six-straight wins, but lost 5 of its final 7 games that year.

This year’s Aggies have played some superb offense with quarterback Marcel Reed at the helm, including an important last-second win at Notre Dame that put the SEC on notice that this is a team to reckon with, and A&M’s defense looked in midseason form, too, allowing 19 combined points in two conference games thus far.

What can we expect as the Gators pay a visit to the Aggies in this SEC clash? Here is our prediction for this Week 7 college football game.

Florida vs. Texas A&M prediction: What to watch

Florida vs. Texas A&M football game prediction 2025 — Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Texas A&M was averaging just 157 yards rushing per game in the first month of the season until it unleashed a beating against Auburn on the ground, pounding through a good front seven to the tune of 207 yards and added 303 last week, the most this season, against Mississippi State.

Head coach Mike Elko said his team’s newfound success running the ball has to do with a conscious effort to focus on that phase of the game once SEC play began, and so far the returns have been promising.

Le’Veon Moss leads the team with 343 of those rushing yards with 5 touchdowns, while Rueben Owens has 276 yards rushing, but both are running into the teeth of a stout Gators front seven that held Texas to just 52 yards — 37 of which came from quarterback Arch Manning — and a 2.0 yard per carry average last week.

Overall, Florida allows opposing backs just 99 yards per game, has surrendered only 4 touchdowns on the ground, and permits a meager 3.2 yards per attempt in 5 games.

2. Big plays

Injuries to quarterback DJ Lagway and wide receiver Dallas Wilson have curtailed the ability of Florida’s promising offense of the potential to show what it has under the hood.

It ranks just 114th out of 136 FBS teams in explosive plays, those that gain 20-plus yards, this season with 17, and is even just 102nd in 10-plus yard gains with 62.

Consequently, the Gators come into the game ranked last in the SEC with 23.4 points per game, 12th in passing offense, and 13th out of 16 teams in rushing production. Lagway has as many interceptions as touchdowns (7) and has been sacked 9 times.

Texas A&M’s defense has succeeded in preventing big plays by generating consistent pressure around the line of scrimmage and limiting gains, allowing just 18 plays of 20-plus yards, ranking 6th with 3.6 sacks per game and 8.2 tackles for loss.

Wide receiver Dallas Wilson, who scored twice against Texas last week, and lead back Jadan Baugh, who became the first rusher to gain 100 yards on the Longhorns this year, will be the Gators’ two principal big-play threats for the Aggies to contain.

3. Third down

Key to sustaining scoring drives is the ability to convert on the most important down, and the Gators’ offense could be in trouble against the Aggies’ aggressive defense there.

Texas A&M confined its last two opponents to just 1 for 23 on third down, good for 4.3 percent, holding Auburn to none and Mississippi State to one.

One of the Florida offense’s many concerns has been third down conversion, coming into the game ranked just 115th nationally, moving the chains on 24 of 69 opportunities, a meager 34.7 percent conversion rate.

A&M’s offense hasn’t fared much better, coming in 113th in the country by converting first downs on 22 of 63 chances, or 34.9 percent.

And the Gators’ defense is a very respectable 29th in college football by limiting opponents to 31.9 percent success, or 22 conversions against 69 opportunities.

Who is favored?

The betting market likes the Aggies to hold serve against the Gators at home.

Texas A&M is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Texas A&M at -275 and for Florida at +225 to win outright.