Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model

Georgia has had five head coaches since 1964. Florida is looking to hire its fifth since 2010. These old rivals are still headed in different directions, but none of that matters when the Bulldogs and Gators get together in The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party rivalry matchup.

Georgia has won four straight against Florida, and seven of the last eight in this series with head coach Kirby Smart at the helm, and the reigning SEC champs have won three-straight games this season, including a marquee victory over then-undefeated Ole Miss.

Florida has, as long expected, pulled the plug on head coach Billy Napier after the team dipped to 2-2 in SEC competition with just 2 wins over FBS teams this year, and is yet to win against an FBS team away from home in 2025.

What do the analytics foresee as the Bulldogs and Gators renew their historic rivalry?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game, and use it to lock in our own projection for the matchup.

Georgia vs. Florida score prediction

Predictably, the models are siding more on the side of the Bulldogs over the underdog Gators, and by double digits if they prove to be correct.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida outright by a projected score of 31 to 21 and will win the game by an expected margin of 10.2 points in the process.

The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 74 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

The betting markets have expectedly leaned more towards the reigning SEC champions, and by more than a touchdown if not quite by double digits.

Georgia is a 7.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -290 and for Florida at +235 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Don’t overlook the Gators’ defense in this matchup. It has played moderately well given the program’s other distractions and could present a credible challenge to a Georgia offense that, while it’s improved from a year ago, can still prove vulnerable in the face of a consistent front seven assault.

The Bulldogs are dominant on the ground, averaging over 190 rushing yards per game, while keeping opponents limited to just 91.1 yards per game on the ground, ranking top 10 in FBS.

Florida’s offense has struggled to generate consistent production, averaging only 22.4 points and 128.1 rushing yards per game. Georgia’s advantage in both running and rush defense is a clear edge, especially in a rivalry setting where who controls the trenches often decides the matter.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

Georgia -7.5
Bulldogs to win -290
Bet over 50.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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