Georgia vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

Georgia looks to rebound from an early loss with a date against Kentucky at home in college football’s Week 6 action on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Once again, the Bulldogs couldn’t get past Alabama, as Kirby Smart fell to 1-7 against his nemesis and the program dropped its 10th game in the last 11 meetings.

It’s an early blotch on Georgia’s record, but it doesn’t have to spell the end of its College Football Playoff hopes, which the reigning SEC champs can build on in this weekend’s matchup against a conference foe that just hasn’t performed well lately.

Mark Stoops is 28-64 in SEC play as Kentucky’s head coach, falling to 0-2 in conference games this season after losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina and ranking just 122nd out of 136 FBS teams in passing output after another change at quarterback this season.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Wildcats visit the Bulldogs this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to some of the more reputable analytical prediction models to get a preview of how Georgia and Kentucky compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Who is favored?

As expected, the Bulldogs are big faves over the Wildcats, according to the oddsmakers.

Georgia is a 20.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook coming into this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -1350 and for Kentucky at +810 to win outright.

The implied score

The game’s implied score suggests that Georgia will have a decisive advantage against the Wildcats to avoid falling under .500 in SEC play.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Georgia will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 35 to 14.

The updated betting line correctly predicted the outright winner 76.8 percent of the time but covered the spread in only 45.9 percent of games, according to The Prediction Tracker.

This suggests that while the line was generally effective at picking winners, it underperformed when measured against the point spread.

SP+ score prediction

As expected, the SP+ prediction model is siding rather strongly with the Bulldogs in this SEC matchup at home.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 35 to 17 and will win the game by an expected margin of 17.4 points in the process.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 119-127 against the spread with a 48.4 win percentage.

College Football Power Index

FPI, or the Football Power Index computer prediction model, uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

It calls Georgia a massive favorite in the game, coming out ahead in 90.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Kentucky as the presumptive winner in the remaining 9.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be 16.8 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 80.3 percent of all games and hit 38.7 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to pick the game

Georgia is a heavy favorite, and the major prediction models strongly backing the Bulldogs to win comfortably.

Kentucky has shown flashes of competitiveness here and there, but Georgia’s depth, talent, and physicality give it a clear edge on both sides of the ball.

The models suggest Georgia should win by multiple scores, making the Bulldogs the safer pick to win and cover in a game that could get out of hand early.

Georgia -20.5
Bulldogs to win -1350
Bet over 48.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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