Georgia vs. Marshall score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Marshall in this Week 1 college football matchup from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia vs. Marshall football game score prediction 2025 | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Week 1 of the college football season kicks off between the hedges in the SEC, as No. 5 Georgia opens up at home against Marshall on Saturday. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

Georgia is the reigning SEC champion, and is on a short list of teams that can make that run again this season, but still has to answer several key questions on its roster.

Gunner Stockton is the heir apparent to Carson Beck at quarterback, but he remains largely untested at the position, and he’ll be working behind a new-look offensive line and breaking in some new receivers the team brought in from the transfer portal.

Defensively, the Bulldogs had to make replacements, as they do every season as the unit is depleted by NFL teams raiding the program, but the rotation figures to once again be one of the most productive in the SEC this coming season.

Marshall could have proven to be a worthy adversary last season, coming off a solid 10-3 outing a year ago in which the program won a Sun Belt title.

But the departure of head coach Charles Huff, and a slew of contributors, has preseason prognosticators foreseeing a decline, as they finished sixth in their division in the first Sun Belt football media poll.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Bulldogs welcome the Thundering Herd between the hedges?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Marshall compare in this Week 1 college football matchup.

Georgia vs. Marshall score prediction

As expected, the Bulldogs are heavy favorites in this one.

SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Marshall by a projected score of 46 to 9 and to win the game by an expected margin of 37 points in the matchup.

The model gives the Bulldogs a virtual guarantee to win, at 99 percent overall.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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How to bet Georgia vs. Marshall

Georgia is 38.5 point favorite against Marshall, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

No moneyline odds were listed for the game, given Georgia being such a heavy favorite against its Sun Belt counterpart.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Marshall +38.5
• Bet over 53.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a slight majority of bettors in this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Marshall is getting 54 percent of bets to, well, in theory, either upset Georgia (not happening), or more likely, to keep the final score under 38 points in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Georgia will win the game by at least 39 points in a rout and cover this generous point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are predictably siding with the Bulldogs over the Thundering Herd in this non-conference clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia is the heavy favorite against Marshall, projected to win the game in the overwhelming majority 97.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Marshall as the presumptive winner in an upset in the other 2.7 percent of sims.

But this model also expects a slightly closer game than the odds would suggest.

Georgia is projected to be 29.4 points better than Marshall on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to that model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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College Football HQ prediction

College Football HQ picks: Georgia wins (duh), but does not cover the spread.

A presumptive SEC champion contender and College Football Playoff shoo-in is not losing at home to Marshall, but 39 points is a lot for a team playing in its first game with so many moving parts on an offense that declined in production last season. Georgia by 28.

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How to watch Georgia vs. Marshall

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Athens, Ga.

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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