Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: Who wins, and why?

A year ago, the battle between Ole Miss and Georgia looked to be extremely consequential when it came to college football’s postseason race, even if the winner of that game missed out while the loser advanced to the 12-team playoff field.

Ole Miss was the better team on the field in Oxford last fall in a signature 28-10 upset victory over Georgia, a game that was head coach Lane Kiffin’s career achievement and for a time looked like the catalyst for the Rebels to make the College Football Playoff.

But it turned out the other way, as Ole Miss dropped a late game against unranked Florida that damaged its playoff credentials, while Georgia went on to win the SEC championship and make it to the quarterfinal round last postseason.

This time around, just as much is ultimately on the table as the Bulldogs look to return the favor at home between the hedges against the undefeated Rebels.

Ole Miss is yet to lose this year and sits atop the SEC standings alongside insurgent contender Texas A&M, beating teams by an average of nearly 19 points, even if it looked uninspired in a three-point win over unranked Washington State last week.

Georgia is 5-1, already with a potentially-costly loss against Alabama, and beating teams by about 15 points on average.

But these teams are markedly different in the first half of games: Ole Miss goes into the halftime break at 6-0 leading by an average of 9.7 points, while Georgia is just 3-3 in the first two quarters and leading by 4.7 points over opponents.

What’s in store as the Rebels pay a visit to the Bulldogs in this ranked SEC clash?

Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: What to watch

Georgia vs. Ole Miss football game prediction 2025 — Brett Davis-Imagn Images

1. Key Matchups on Offense

Georgia’s balanced offensive scheme runs through mobile quarterback Gunner Stockton and running backs Nate Frazier and Josh McCray, producing a steady red-zone success rate—10th nationally in offensive drives finished, resulting in points.

Ole Miss, led by dynamic dual-threat quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, operates a high-tempo offense capable of generating explosive plays, particularly through deep passing routes and RPO designs.

However, Georgia’s defense is specifically built to neutralize inside zone and man-blocking run concepts, areas where Ole Miss typically thrives.

2. Strengths and Weaknesses on Defense

Georgia’s defense ranks among the nation’s elite, allowing only 91.7 rushing yards per game and ranking second in tackling efficiency with just 17 missed tackles over its past three games.

Ole Miss struggles against the run, giving up 157 rushing yards per game — 14th in the SEC — making Georgia’s run-heavy red-zone presence a key deciding factor.

Nonetheless, the Rebels’ best chance lies in exploiting Georgia’s secondary, which has shown vulnerability against vertical passing attacks.

3. Turnovers, Discipline, and Efficiency

Turnover margin and penalty discipline favor the Georgia side, playing on the back of a defense that consistently forces mistakes from opponents.

Ole Miss, while more explosive offensively, takes greater risks downfield, increasing interception probability when facing an better secondary, and Georgia could be the best it plays.

The matchup between Georgia’s more methodical pace and Ole Miss’s aggressive offensive identity will strongly influence total scoring around the over/under line.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are favoring the Bulldogs over the Rebels by more than a touchdown.

Georgia is a 7.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -270 and for Ole Miss at +220 to win outright.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction: Who wins?

Ole Miss vs. Georgia football game prediction 2025 — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

This isn’t a vintage Georgia defense right now. It doesn’t get the same kind of pressure it has in years past, and that could play directly into Trinidad Chambliss’ ability to move the chains with his legs and build some momentum with the Rebels’ expert skill threats, especially in the first half.

Unlike last week, when Auburn was unable to take much advantage against Georgia because of its anemic offensive attack, the Rebels have no such weakness, ranking sixth in the country in explosive plays, those that gain 20-plus yards downfield.

One such weakness Ole Miss does have? It comes into this game ranked 98th in FBS when defending against the run, an issue that could play into an improved Georgia ground attack. That is, unless the Bulldogs are down enough after the first half where they have to throw the ball more to come back.

Ole Miss has enough strengths to play into Georgia’s relative weaknesses, but the Bulldogs should have an edge to play its offense on schedule in the early going if they can figure out how to establish the run from the start.

College Football HQ picks...

Georgia wins 27-24
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More: Georgia vs. Ole Miss score prediction by expert model

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Georgia

When: Sat., Oct. 18
Where: Georgia

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network