Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction by ESPN football computer expects narrow result

An SEC rematch is set for the Sugar Bowl as the second round of the College Football Playoff gets underway as the new year begins, with Georgia and Ole Miss meeting again on the same field.

Georgia handed Ole Miss its only loss so far this season, coming back from an early deficit to take out the Rebels between the hedges, but plenty more is on the line this time around.

Ole Miss handled Tulane easily in a 41-10 result in the first round game in Oxford even without Lane Kiffin on the sideline, but the quality of competition dramatically increases against the Bulldogs.

Just three points kept Georgia from being undefeated, but it avenged that loss by taking out Alabama to win the SEC championship and earned a first-round bye as the No. 3 seed.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss prediction

The models foresee a close game on the scoreboard, but with one overwhelming conclusion.

Georgia emerged as the favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 60.1 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Ole Miss as the presumptive winner in the remaining 39.9 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Georgia is projected to be just 2.5 points better than Ole Miss on the same field, according to the model's latest forecast.

If so, that would not be enough for the Bulldogs to cover the spread, as Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games this season, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 48.1 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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