Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Georgia and Tennessee square off in this classic SEC rivalry as college football’s Week 3 action kicks off today, with our prediction for a game that serves as a crucial early test for two playoff hopefuls.

Georgia has owned the rivalry with Tennessee of late, winning eight straight games over the Vols by an average margin of 29 points, and winning by at least two touchdowns in every game over that time.

Now, as reigning SEC champions, the Bulldogs look for a ninth-straight over Big Orange, but have to go on the road to Rocky Top and face what looks like a Tennessee squad that will be up to the challenge this time around.

Tennessee has looked confident on offense, scoring 117 combined points in wins over Syracuse and ETSU, as new quarterback Joey Aguilar pilots an offense that ranks No. 1 nationally with 70.5 points per game and is ninth in FBS in rushing output.

Georgia’s defense has been characteristically dominant so far, ranking 7th in the country by allowing just 6.5 points on average, but the new-look offense led by quarterback Gunner Stockton has its critics after two lackluster showings in non-conference games with a perception that it left some points off the scoreboard.

What can we expect as the Bulldogs visit the Volunteers in this SEC rivalry clash?

Here’s what you should watch for as Georgia and Tennessee meet in this Week 3 college football game, with our updated prediction for the matchup.

Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: What to watch for

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers football game prediction 2025 — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

1. QB battle

In the contest between Joey Aguilar vs. Gunner Stockton, it appears the former has the advantage coming in, but he’ll face his toughest challenge yet by far.

Aguiar will make his SEC debut in this game in what is his 27th start as an FBS quarterback, averaging 267 yards passing per game with 5 touchdown passes, and is playing behind a line that hasn’t allowed a sack yet through two games.

Concerns around turnovers have yet to materialize. Despite finishing with a career-high touchdown-interception ratio a year ago, Aguilar is yet to throw a pick after leading college football with 14 giveaways last season.

Stockton is a 69 percent passer with 2 touchdowns and no picks but didn’t score last week despite completing 77 percent of his throws.

Georgia made big investments at wide receiver this offseason, adding Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas, but the offense is averaging just 5.98 yards per play, ranking 11th among SEC teams, and Stockton posts a meager 7.2 yards per attempt so far.

2. Ground and pound

Winning games in the SEC most importantly comes down to how physically you play on both lines of scrimmage and impose your will by running the ball with consistency.

That was a marked weakness for Georgia a year ago, ranking 15th in the SEC in rushing output, and needs to get much better production from its backs to help settle in Stockton and not rely on him to win these games by himself.

Tennessee presents an effective group of rushers in its backfield, between DeSean Bishop, Star Thomas, and Peyton Lewis, combining to average 253 yards per game, despite working behind a line that replaced four starters this season.

Georgia has defended the run well thus far, allowing admittedly overmatched opponents to post just under 62 yards on the ground on average.

Tennessee’s projected right tackle David Sanders, Jr., who missed the first two games with a shoulder ailment, is also not expected to play in this game, which could present a matchup problem as the Vols protect Aguilar from his strong side against the Bulldogs’ expert edge rushers.

3. Injury impact

Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton may not have the experience or have proven himself as a consistent downfield throwing threat thus far, but Tennessee’s defense could give him a stage to change that narrative.

Tennessee is expected to go without both its starting cornerbacks, Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson, in this game as both deal with injuries.

Those particular holes in the Vols’ back seven could provide Stockton and a group of blue-chip receivers with an important angle to get more aggressive moving the ball downfield on a consistent basis.

Tennessee has struggled on the back end this season, too, ranking 88th nationally in total pass defense, allowing 6.2 yards per pass, but an average of almost 221 yards in the air from opponents per game.

Who is favored?

The sportsbooks still maintain the Bulldogs are favorites against the Volunteers.

Georgia is a close 4.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -182 and for Tennessee at +150 to win outright.

Georgia vs. Tennessee prediction: Who wins?

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers football game prediction | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

History is one thing. Yes, Georgia has dominated in the series against Tennessee, and yes, by some considerable margins. But that’s history.

Georgia opened up as a near-touchdown favorite in this game, and the line being trimmed down as much as it has suggests that the underdog has a real shot.

The lethargic showing from Georgia’s offense so far, the continued absence of a truly threatening run game, and Stockton’s inexperience could be deciding factors here.

Tennessee’s offense didn’t feel the kind of legitimate threat throwing the ball with Nico Iamaleava under center as it appears to be with Aguilar dealing from the pocket.

He’ll be challenged by an expert Georgia secondary, the Vols’ protection will buckle at times against the Bulldogs’ front seven, and Aguilar’s penchant for turnovers could show itself again against by far the best back seven he’s seen in his career.

But his receivers have the speed to pick up yards after the catch and Tennessee’s ground game still looks intact enough to balance this attack and keep the chains moving.

We’ll take a chance on the Vols.

College Football HQ picks...

Tennessee wins 27-23
In an upset
And hits the over

More: Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model