Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Georgia vs. Tennessee in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers score prediction 2025 | Randy Sartin-Imagn Images

Georgia and Tennessee meet in college football’s Week 3 action in this classic rivalry matchup. Here’s the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Georgia has taken eight of the last meetings against Tennessee, but some analysts speculate the tide could turn in the Vols’ favor this time around.

Not only do they have home field advantage on Rocky Top this time, but the presence of Joey Aguilar at the quarterback position could be a decisive edge for this offense against a Bulldogs squad that hasn’t looked up to its potential through two games this season.

Georgia got past Austin Peay and Marshall easily enough, but the sluggish performance of the offense, now under the direction of quarterback Gunner Stockton, has led to questions about whether this team can play up to the standard it set over the last few years.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Bulldogs and Volunteers meet on the same field in this SEC rivalry clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Tennessee compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Georgia vs. Tennessee score prediction

The models foresee an upset on Rocky Top this week, and are taking the Vols over the Dawgs in this SEC clash.

But this one could come down to the narrowest of margins.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Georgia by a projected score of 25 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 1.3 points.

The model gives the Vols a narrow 53 percent chance of outright victory over Georgia.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sportsbooks are still giving the visiting team the edge in this rivalry game.

Georgia is a 4.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the latest updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Georgia at -178 and for Tennessee at +146 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Tennessee +4.5
• Vols to win +146
• Bet under 49.5 points

A slight majority of bettors are sticking with the reigning SEC champions to withstand this test on the road against their rivals.

Georgia is getting 56 percent of bets to win the game by at least 5 points and cover the narrow point spread to avoid its first loss of the season.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Tennessee will either upset the Bulldogs outright at home to stay undefeated, or lose the game by 4 points or fewer.

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Computer prediction

In an interesting twist, most other analytical football models are also sticking with the Volunteers over the Bulldogs in this home game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That model also expects Tennessee will pull off the upset against Georgia, as the Vols came out ahead in the majority 51.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That left the Bulldogs as the presumptive winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of sims.

And that narrow prognostication was reflected in the model’s forecast for the final margin between these teams.

The computers project that Tennessee will be just 0.2 points better than Georgia on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Georgia vs. Tennessee game winner

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How to watch Georgia vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Tennessee

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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