Greg McElroy calls for major college football upset for top-15 program in Week 12

The matchup between the Virginia Cavaliers and the Duke Blue Devils has emerged as one of Week 12’s most important showdowns, with both programs eyeing the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game in Charlotte. On Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy predicted that Duke could pull off a major upset if Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris is sidelined following a concussion suffered against Wake Forest.

McElroy described the pick as “a very hard one to make,” noting that Virginia’s offensive outlook hinges entirely on Morris’ availability. He said if the Cavaliers’ quarterback is healthy, Virginia can compete, but if not, the advantage swings heavily toward Duke. “Until he’s cleared, it’s a complete unknown,” McElroy said, adding that he would side with Duke and “lay the points” for now.

Virginia, ranked No. 14, enters at 8-2 and 5-1 in the ACC, while Duke stands at 5-4 overall and 4-1 in conference play. Both teams sit among a cluster of one-loss programs still contending for a spot in the ACC title race.

Greg McElroy Weighs Virginia QB Injury, Duke’s Defensive Risks

McElroy’s analysis centered on two major factors: the health of Chandler Morris and Duke’s high-risk defensive tendencies. Morris has been the catalyst of Virginia’s offensive rise, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 2,088 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while also rushing for four scores. He was forced out of the Wake Forest game early after a hit to the head, prompting head coach Tony Elliott to caution that his quarterback’s status remains uncertain.

“Anytime you get hit in the head or above the neck, you’ve got to take that with a lot of caution,” Elliott said, emphasizing the need to prioritize Morris’ long-term health.

In Morris’ absence, backup Daniel Kaelin managed 145 passing yards but failed to generate explosive plays. That drop-off could prove costly against Duke’s potent offense led by quarterback Darian Mensah, who has thrown for 2,794 yards and 24 touchdowns this season.

Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Daniel Kaelin (10) would get the start against Duke if Chandler Morris is held out because of last week's concussion injury. | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Duke’s defense, however, remains a glaring weakness. The Blue Devils rank 96th in scoring defense and 102nd in total defense, giving up nearly 400 yards per game. McElroy highlighted that Duke’s aggressive blitz packages under head coach Manny Diaz often create opportunities for opposing playmakers, such as Virginia running back J’Mari Taylor.

Virginia’s path to victory likely depends on Morris’ availability and its ability to exploit Duke’s coverage gaps. Conversely, Duke’s success rests on Mensah avoiding costly turnovers after committing two interceptions and a late fumble in last week’s loss to UConn.

The Cavaliers will face the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.