Greg McElroy predicts Iowa-USC winner in Big Ten Week 12 contest

Greg McElroy analyzed Iowa versus USC on Always College Football, breaking down key matchups before picking the Trojans to win.

College football analyst Greg McElroy believes USC will win in Week 12 against Iowa. | Joseph Cress/For the Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The upcoming matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and USC Trojans carries all the intrigue of a contrast in football identities. It’s a collision between physical defense and explosive offense, with two head coaches representing opposite philosophies. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz brings his methodical, disciplined approach to Los Angeles, while USC head coach Lincoln Riley leans on pace, balance, and big-play execution.

Iowa enters with one of the nation’s top defenses, allowing just 250.2 yards per game, while USC’s offense ranks second nationally at 503.2 yards per game. The Trojans boast quarterback Jayden Maiava’s 2,614 passing yards and wide receiver Makai Lemon’s 937 receiving yards, while running back King Miller anchors a ground game averaging 200 yards per contest.

For Iowa, quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Kamari Moulton drive an offense designed to control tempo and shorten games.

Greg McElroy Explains His Iowa-USC Pick On Always College Football

On Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy said the matchup represents “a collision of football philosophies.” He highlighted the battle between Riley’s dynamic offense and Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s structured discipline. McElroy noted Iowa’s defensive regression in a rainy loss to Oregon, when the Hawkeyes allowed 261 rushing yards after entering the week as a top-10 run defense. He credited Oregon’s execution, saying the Ducks “out-Iowaed Iowa.”

Still, McElroy emphasized that USC’s run game, led by Miller, has become one of the nation’s most effective units. “They are not a one-dimensional passing attack,” he said. “They go for over 200 a game on the ground.” He also praised Maiava’s poise and the protection from a line that’s allowed only 10 sacks all season.

USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) has at least two touchdown passes in all but two games this season. | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

McElroy identified Iowa’s special teams as a potential swing factor, referencing returner Kaden Wetjen’s game-breaking ability. But after weighing both sides, he sided with USC. “Everybody continues to question SC’s toughness,” McElroy said. “I think SC will be up to the challenge. I’m going to take the Trojans and lay the points.”

The USC Trojans will face the Iowa Hawkeyes at home on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on BTN.