Greg McElroy picks underdog to win Power 4 conference championship game on Saturday

Greg McElroy predicts this conference championship will see a slight upset as the underdog earns the victory.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy is calling for a light upset in the SEC Championship game by picking the Alabama Crimson Tide to win over the Georgia Bulldogs. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On Tuesday's episode of ESPN's Always College Football podcast, analyst Greg McElroy delivered a bold prediction regarding the weekend's most heavily anticipated championship clash.

The former quarterback evaluated the point spread and public sentiment before ultimately selecting the lower-ranked program to secure the conference crown. He argued that the current betting line fails to account for the unique psychological advantages the road team possesses in this specific rivalry.

A major component of the analysis focuses on a specific head coach who remains undefeated against the sport’s premier tacticians. This leader holds a flawless 7-0 record combined against the opposing coach and other elite peers. McElroy suggested this historical dominance indicates a schematic edge that seemingly neutralizes the talent gap often perceived by oddsmakers.

The selection also hinges on defensive volatility and the ability to generate chaos in high-pressure moments. While the favored squad has reestablished its identity following a streak-snapping home loss earlier this year, the underdog thrives on disruption. This contrast in styles creates an environment where turnover margin and red zone efficiency likely determine the victor.

Greg McElroy Selects Underdog Winner of SEC Championship

McElroy officially backed the Alabama Crimson Tide to defeat the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer enters the matchup as a 1.5-point underdog against Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart. The analyst emphasized that the narrative surrounding the No. 10-ranked team mimics the doubt that existed before their September collision.

This game offers DeBoer a chance to validate a new era and prove his program’s dominance is institutional rather than individual. McElroy pointed out that Alabama matches up well with the schemes Georgia presents. He reminded listeners that the Tide prevented a blowout in the previous meeting despite widespread skepticism.

Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has led the Tide to the SEC Championship for the first time since he arrived in Tuscaloosa. | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"I read what everyone's saying about this game, and this game feels very similar to the last time out," McElroy said. "Do I think Georgia has improved? Yes. Do I think Alabama has in some ways become a little bit more inconsistent? Yes. But also at the same time, what was your perception of Alabama going into the Georgia game last time? They didn't [get rolled]."

A critical factor in the rematch involves the status of Georgia center Drew Bobo. The consistent lineman sustained a foot injury against Georgia Tech and is likely to miss the game. McElroy noted that relying on inexperienced replacements, such as Malachi Toliver or Cortez Smith, could lead to communication breakdowns. These protection issues become dangerous against an Alabama front that has improved significantly and allows just over 120 rushing yards per game.

The Crimson Tide also holds a distinct edge in ball security with a 19th-ranked plus-eight turnover margin compared to the Bulldogs’ minus-one differential. McElroy believes this opportunistic nature compensates for offensive fluctuations.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has led the Bulldogs to five straight conference championships. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Quarterback Ty Simpson serves as the catalyst after throwing for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. His mobility extended plays and neutralized the pass rush in Athens during the first meeting.

"I think everyone's on Georgia again this time," McElroy said. "They were last time, too. I still think Alabama's desperation and opportunistic defense gives them the edge in this game. I think they bring home the SEC championship for Kalen DeBoer."

The Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Georgia Bulldogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on ABC.