Greg McElroy picks unranked home underdog to win against top-12 program

Greg McElroy predicts Iowa State will upset undefeated BYU, citing desperation, experience, and home advantage.

ESPN analyst Greg McElroy predicts Iowa State will win in a light upset over BYU in Week 9. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On Wednesday’s episode of Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy went against the grain with his Week 9 pick. McElroy predicted an upset in Ames, siding with Iowa State to take down undefeated BYU. He called it a matchup between momentum and desperation, and he’s riding with the team that needs it more.

“I’m taking the desperate team in this one,” McElroy said. “I’m taking Iowa State. It is a veteran-laden group and they’ve got to have it. If they don’t get this one, their season is for the most part done. Their goals are for the most part over. They’ll have to re-establish their goals if they don’t get this one. I think you’ll get the best version of Iowa State this week coming off a bye. I think they steal the upset against the undefeated BYU Cougars.”

The Cyclones are 5–2 and coming off two straight losses, while BYU sits at 7–0 and ranks in the top 15 nationally. McElroy acknowledged BYU’s impressive run but pointed to Iowa State’s urgency, home-field advantage, and extra rest as deciding factors.

McElroy Breaks Down Why Iowa State Could Upset BYU

McElroy praised BYU’s power run game, calling it “punishing and relentless.” Led by running back LJ Martin, the Cougars rank 10th nationally with 232.9 rushing yards per game. Martin has eclipsed 100 yards in five of seven outings, giving BYU a physical identity that wears defenses down. Yet McElroy said Iowa State’s defensive discipline and familiarity with physical Big 12 play make this a tougher test than expected.

At quarterback, BYU’s Bear Bachmeier has emerged as one of the most productive freshmen in college football. He’s earned Big 12 Freshman of the Week honors five times in seven games while showing poise under pressure. McElroy noted that Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock’s three-high safety scheme could cause Bachmeier problems, creating disguised coverages that bait young quarterbacks into mistakes.

Meanwhile, Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has quietly built consistency, completing more than 63 percent of his passes for over 1,600 yards. McElroy credited Becht’s maturity, mobility, and ability to command the offense under coordinator Taylor Mouser. Running back Abu Sama III and tight end Benjamin Brahmer have been key red-zone targets, and both could play crucial roles against BYU’s bend-but-don’t-break defense.

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) has 1,622 passing yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions along with seven rushing scores this season. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

McElroy emphasized that Iowa State’s bye week arrived at the perfect time, allowing key players like Carson Hansen and Kyle Konrardy to return. Head coach Matt Campbell called BYU “a complete offense” that thrives on toughness and balance, but he acknowledged his team’s renewed energy entering a pivotal home game.

“The reality of it is, you’re playing one of the most veteran and complete O-line and D-lines that we face this year,” Campbell said. “They’re big, they’re physical, and really they’ve done a great job in all the games of winning the line of scrimmage.”

Iowa State will host BYU on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.