Greg McElroy picks Michigan-Michigan State winner

Michigan’s ground game and defense give it the edge over Michigan State, according to ESPN’s Greg McElroy.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) and the Wolverines are 5-2 overall with a 3-1 record in Big Ten play. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The rivalry between the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans is one of college football’s most enduring matchups. When these two programs meet for the 118th time, it’s not just about records or rankings but bragging rights for an entire state. Michigan enters with a 5-2 record and the No. 25 ranking, while Michigan State sits at 3-4 and desperate to stop a four-game skid in Big Ten play.

On Wednesday’s episode of Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy shared his pick for the showdown and made his confidence in Michigan clear, even if his tone carried caution. “I’ll take Michigan,” McElroy said. “Now, it’s always tough to lay two touchdowns on the road in a rivalry, but unless Michigan screws it up, I just think it’s going to be hard for Michigan State to stop them or score with them throughout this game.”

McElroy acknowledged the risk, calling it a pick he’d avoid betting outright. “I’ll take Michigan and I will reluctantly lay the points, but that does not feel good. I’m going to be honest with you. I wouldn’t bet this game under any circumstances, but since I have to, I’ll tell you to lay the points. Why not?”

Michigan’s Rushing Attack, Defensive Edge Could Decide It

McElroy broke down why he believes the Wolverines hold the advantage. Michigan’s offensive identity, led by coordinator Chip Lindsey and head coach Sherrone Moore, starts with a dominant rushing attack. Running backs Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall have combined for over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns, powering an offense that averages 212 rushing yards per game. “They want to be physical,” McElroy said. “They want to be a punishing team that dominates the line of scrimmage.”

Quarterback Bryce Underwood has added balance, throwing for 1,440 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. His mobility has also helped Michigan sustain drives against tough defenses. Meanwhile, Michigan State has struggled to contain opposing offenses, ranking 121st nationally in scoring defense and allowing 32.7 points per game.

Michigan running back Justice Haynes (left) leads the Wolverines with 705 yards and eight touchdowns on 95 carries. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Spartans’ defense, coordinated by Joe Rossi, will need to sell out to stop the run. That means bringing safeties closer to the line, risking exposure against Michigan’s passing game. But McElroy doesn’t see that gamble paying off. “Unless Michigan screws it up,” he said, “I just think it’s going to be hard for Michigan State to stop them or score with them.”

Aidan Chiles, Michigan State’s quarterback, has shown flashes but has struggled recently, throwing for under 100 yards in two of his last three games. Without sustained offense, the Spartans may not keep pace.

The Wolverines will travel to East Lansing to face the Spartans on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.