Best College Football Bowl Game Bets This Week: Bet Michigan vs. Texas in Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

Michigan is a significant underdog against Texas in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Don't let the College Football Playoff this week distract you from the rest of the bowl games set to take place. There are some intriguing non-playoff matchups and plenty of great betting opportunities.

If you're looking for a few bets to place on the non-playoff bowl games, you're in the right spot. Let's dive into some of my favorites.

College Football Best Bowl Bets This Week

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Michigan +6.5 (+100) vs. Texas
• Navy vs. Cincinnati OVER 53.5 (-122)
• Wake Forest +3.5 (-120) vs. Mississippi State
• Arizona -2.5 (-118) vs. SMU

Michigan vs. Texas Citrus Bowl Prediction

Michigan was never in the conversation to be in the College Football Playoff, but that doesn't mean the Wolverines are a bad team. In fact, it's quite the opposite. They rank 22nd in the country in net adjusted EPA per play and 25th in net success rate, while Texas ranks 31st and 81st in those two categories.

The Longhorns are being overvalued in this spot after they finished their season by handing Texas A&M its first loss of the season. The fact is, their season-long metrics aren't good enough for them to be 6.5-point favorites against a very solid Michigan team.

Pick: Michigan +6.5 (+100)

Navy vs. Cincinnati Liberty Bowl Prediction

This game features two of the worst defenses in college football. Cincinnati and Navy rank 121st and 127th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play and 102nd and 104th in opponent success rate, respectively. Not only that, but the game sets up well for both offenses, as their strengths will face the opposing defense's weakness. Navy has one of the highest run-play rates in the country, and Cincinnati can't stop the run. Cincinnati is a pass-first team, but Navy has one of the worst secondaries in the country.

All of that adds up to this being a great OVER bet to get in on.

Pick: OVER 53.5 (-122)

Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Duke's Mayo Bowl Prediction

Wake Forest's run defense is going to put them in a great spot to keep this game close. The Demon Deacons have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry this season and 2.6 yards per carry over their last three games. The Bulldogs are a run-first team, so if they can't find success on the ground against Wake Forest, this game is going to come down to the wire.

Pick: Wake Forest +3.5 (-120)

Arizona vs. SMU Holiday Bowl Prediction

Arizona is one of the most underrated teams in the country. The Wildcats rank 13th in net adjusted EPA per play, which is better than the likes of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Georgia.

SMU throws the ball on 55.26% of its plays, the 19th highest pass play rate in the country. Now, they have to face an Arizona secondary that ranks third in opponent EPA per dropback and seventh in opponent dropback success rate, while allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. If styles make fights, Arizona has a significant advantage in this one.

Pick: Arizona -2.5 (-118)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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