Greg McElroy predicts winner of Illinois-Indiana game

Smashmouth stakes meet precision passing under the Bloomington lights

College football analyst Greg McElroy explained his reasoning for selecting the Indiana Hoosiers to win against the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

A ranked Big Ten showcase in Bloomington arrives with plenty on the line. No. 9 Illinois visits No. 19 Indiana at Memorial Stadium on Saturday night with early positioning in a crowded playoff race at stake.

On Thursday’s Always College Football, analyst Greg McElroy backed the Hoosiers after weighing trench play, quarterback efficiency, and situational football. He praised Indiana’s defensive “disruption” and veteran offensive line while still crediting both programs’ rebuilds under Bret Bielema and Curt Cignetti.

McElroy added that he expects one of the weekend’s most exacting tests of timing and protection.

Why Greg McElroy Picks Indiana Over Illinois

McElroy’s case starts up front. Indiana’s defense has compiled 10 sacks through three games and smothered Indiana State to 77 total yards. He believes that persistent pressure, paired with offensive line coach Bob Bostad’s veteran unit, offers a repeatable path to control field position.

Illinois counters with elite efficiency and takeaways. The Illini rank among the nation’s best in scoring defense and have recovered five fumbles through three games.

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers are out to prove last year's College Football Playoff appearance wasn't a fluke. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Edge rusher Gabe Jacas leads the Big Ten with 6.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. His matchup against Indiana’s tackles looms as the game’s inflection point on passing downs.

McElroy likes how Cignetti’s details show in all three phases. He pointed to Indiana’s low rate of mental mistakes and clean operation as advantages in a possession game. He also noted that Illinois punishes errors and rarely gives the ball away, raising the premium on protection and third-down execution. In a tight script, he trusts Indiana’s front to hurry throws without sacrificing explosives on the back end.

Quarterbacks, Explosive Plays And Third-Down Leverage

Quarterback play shapes McElroy’s lean to Indiana. Transfer Fernando Mendoza delivered a 19-for-20, five-touchdown outing against Indiana State and leads a wide, productive receiver rotation. Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt stretch the field and convert in the red zone. McElroy contends Mendoza will “show why he was so coveted in the portal,” provided the pocket stays orderly.

Illinois brings its own clean profile with Luke Altmyer. The junior has opened 2025 completing 72% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions.

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) has thrown for 708 yards and nine touchdowns, adding 72 yards and two scores on the ground. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

All-purpose threat Hank Beatty headlines a supporting cast that sustains drives and tilts hidden yardage on special teams. That blend reflects Bielema’s turnover-averse identity and composure on third down.

McElroy ultimately returned to margins. He cited Indiana’s disruptive front, a veteran offensive line, and perimeter depth as the trio most likely to swing a single-score game. “I’ll take Indiana,” he said, while calling the passing matchup one that could “overwhelm” if protection tilts to the home team.

Indiana will host Illinois on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.