Greg McElroy predicts winner of South Carolina-Missouri game

Mizzou muscle, third-down poise and QB certainty win out.

Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula (9) and the Tigers are Greg McElroy's pick to win this weekend's game against the South Carolina Gamecocks. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Greg McElroy sees a decisive edge forming in Columbia, and he put it on the record. On Thursday’s episode of Always College Football, the former Alabama quarterback turned analyst forecast a Missouri win over South Carolina, citing the Tigers’ balance, trench play and the uncertainty around quarterback LaNorris Sellers. “I’ll take Missouri,” McElroy said, adding that the Tigers’ defensive front “can apply pressure against an offensive line that has struggled.”

The matchup arrives with both programs moving in opposite directions. South Carolina, coached by Shane Beamer with Mike Shula calling the offense, is searching for traction after a 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt and a midgame injury to Sellers. Missouri, led by Eli Drinkwitz, has raced to 3-0 behind quarterback Beau Pribula and a run game fronted by Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts.

Context matters in this rivalry tilt. Missouri’s defense has been stingy, while South Carolina’s offense ranks near the bottom nationally in yards and third-down rate. That’s the backdrop to McElroy’s on-air lean toward the home team.

Greg McElroy’s Case For Missouri Over South Carolina

McElroy framed the game through personnel and situational football. He praised Pribula’s command—“really precise, completing 76% of his passes, just one pick, seven touchdowns”—and highlighted how his mobility adds stress to a defense that already must contend with Hardy’s burst and Roberts’ power. He then turned to the other side of the ball, where he believes Missouri’s front can dictate terms against a South Carolina line that has allowed negative plays and struggled to create explosives without Sellers.

In his view, South Carolina’s offensive profile compounds the risk. Before Sellers exited last week, the Gamecocks were already 118th in total offense and 120th on third down, numbers that worsened when Luke Doty was pressed into action.

South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers (16) is questionable to play on Saturday after sustaining a concussion last week against Vanderbilt. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

McElroy underscored how the drive-by-drive efficiency gap favors Missouri, noting the Tigers’ top-five defensive metrics and the presence of playmakers such as Damon Wilson and Zion Young who can collapse pockets and close space. He also nodded to recent form, pointing out that Missouri has “covered in eight straight games,” a shorthand for the Tigers consistently playing to expectation or better.

McElroy didn’t bury the lead on health, either. He acknowledged Beamer’s optimism that Sellers could be available, yet he cautioned that even with Sellers, Missouri is “more complete” and more disruptive up front. That, paired with Mizzou’s physical run game and multiple options for Pribula off play-action, framed his forecast of a home win.

The Pivot Points: Quarterback Health, Third Downs And Trenches

The game’s pivot points align neatly with McElroy’s analysis. If Sellers plays, South Carolina gains a designed-run threat and a vertical thrower who can punish single coverage, but his status after a concussion protocol introduces real variance.

Without him, Doty’s efficiency must spike against a defense allowing only 191.3 yards per game and excelling in third-and-medium. Meanwhile, Missouri’s offense faces a capable Gamecocks unit that ranks top-50 in total defense and boasts edge talent in Dylan Stewart and a playmaker in nickelback Jalen Kilgore.

South Carolina Gamecocks edge Dylan Stewart (6) has two sacks through three games this season. | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Third down looms largest. Missouri’s offense has been among the nation’s best at sustaining drives, while South Carolina’s offense has labored to extend possessions. That gap, combined with Missouri’s time-of-possession edge and physicality at the line of scrimmage, points to a script that shortens the game and reduces the number of chances South Carolina has to manufacture explosives. It is the kind of complementary profile that travels week to week, and it is why McElroy’s pick tracks with how both teams have actually played.

The Tigers will host the South Carolina Gamecocks at Faurot Field on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.