Greg McElroy predicts winner of Texas Tech-Kansas State game

Texas Tech earns Greg McElroy’s confidence over Kansas State thanks to its top-ranked defense and steady quarterback play.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy is taking the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Week 10 over a surging Kansas State Wildcats team. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The November matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and Kansas State Wildcats brings a contrast of styles and urgency in the Big 12 race. On Always College Football, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy outlined the key factors before predicting a Red Raider win in Manhattan.

Texas Tech enters at 7-1 and ranked No. 13, with one of the best defenses in college football. The Red Raiders lead the nation in rush defense and rank fourth in scoring defense, a strength McElroy said will define the game. Kansas State, at 4-4, has found rhythm behind quarterback Avery Johnson, who has guided three wins in the last four games. Yet McElroy pointed to the Wildcats’ struggles in the red zone and on third down as major concerns against an opponent that thrives in both areas.

McElroy said the combination of Texas Tech’s defensive front and Kansas State’s depleted backfield tilts the matchup. “I’m taking Texas Tech in the game,” McElroy said. “I think Texas Tech will make Kansas State one-dimensional, stop the run, and control the game. Avery Johnson is probably the most important player on the field. If he gets hot, look out. But this Red Raider defense is by far the best he’s seen all year. I think Texas Tech will handle their business on the road in Manhattan.”

Texas Tech’s Defense Draws Praise For Its Discipline, Depth

McElroy’s breakdown started with the defensive metrics. Texas Tech allows just 68.1 rushing yards per game, has surrendered only two runs of 20-plus yards all season, and ranks fourth nationally in scoring defense at 12.4 points per game. Linebackers Jacob Rodriguez, Ben Roberts, and David Bailey headline a front seven that has smothered opposing offenses. Rodriguez also leads the nation with five forced fumbles and is tied for the FBS lead in defensive touchdowns.

Texas Tech linebacker David Bailey (31) leads the Red Raiders with 10.5 sacks. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Kansas State’s offensive success hinges on Johnson’s dual-threat ability, but without injured running back Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats’ ground attack may lack balance. Sophomore Joe Jackson will start in his place after averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. McElroy said that forces Johnson to take on too much against a defense built to pressure mobile quarterbacks.

He also noted penalties and discipline as possible equalizers. Kansas State averages just 33 penalty yards per game, while Texas Tech ranks near the bottom of the FBS at more than 60. “A holding call or pre-snap flag could change the tone,” McElroy said. “Kansas State can’t beat themselves if they want to stay close.”

The Red Raiders will face the Wildcats at Bill Snyder Family Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox.