Greg McElroy picks winner of UCF-Texas Tech game in Week 12

The Big 12 race continues to heat up, and this week’s matchup between UCF and Texas Tech brings together two teams trending in opposite directions. Texas Tech, sitting at 9-1 overall and 6-1 in conference play, is eyeing its first 10-win regular season since 2008. UCF, meanwhile, enters with a 4-5 record and fading postseason hopes after a disappointing loss to Houston in its annual Space Game.

Texas Tech has dominated on both sides of the ball this season, boasting top-five national rankings in scoring offense, scoring defense, and takeaways per game. The Red Raiders are averaging 42.1 points per contest while allowing just 12.6. Quarterback Behren Morton has thrown for nearly 2,000 yards with 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions, while running back Cameron Dickey has powered the ground attack with 869 yards and 11 scores. UCF, led by quarterback Tayven Jackson and running back Myles Montgomery, has struggled to find consistency, especially against stronger defensive fronts.

This weekend also marks Senior Day in Lubbock. Head coach Joey McGuire’s team will honor more than 20 players before kickoff, including Morton, linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, and defensive standout Bryce Ramirez. With just two games left on the schedule, Texas Tech remains firmly in contention for a Big 12 Championship Game berth and a potential College Football Playoff push.

Greg McElroy Predicts a Sloppy Texas Tech Win Over UCF

On Tuesday’s episode of ESPN’s Always College Football, analyst Greg McElroy offered his pick for the Week 12 matchup. He selected Texas Tech to defeat UCF, though he cautioned it could be an uneven performance. “I could see this being an emotional flat spot for Tech,” McElroy said. “But I just don’t think UCF is the type of team that can take advantage. I’ll take the Red Raiders, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this game was a little bit sloppy for them, at least early on in the ball game.”

McElroy noted that UCF faces major hurdles entering the matchup. Both Montgomery and Jackson suffered injuries in last week’s loss to Houston, which could leave the Knights short-handed against the nation’s top-ranked rush defense.

Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton has thrown for 1,969 yards, 16 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Texas Tech allows fewer than 75 rushing yards per game and just 2.5 yards per carry, a formula that’s stifled every opponent so far. The Red Raiders held BYU to only 67 rushing yards in their 29-7 win last Saturday.

If UCF is to make this one competitive, it must finish drives in the red zone. McElroy highlighted that the Knights rank 107th nationally in red zone defense, while Texas Tech’s offense is scoring on nearly 89 percent of its trips inside the 20. He added that UCF will need both health and discipline to avoid falling behind early in one of the nation’s toughest road environments.

Texas Tech will host Central Florida on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on Fox.