Greg McElroy predicts winner of UNLV-Boise State MWC championship

The Boise State Broncos will host the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Conference championship game on Friday night. This matchup marks the third consecutive season these programs have collided for the league title; however, the stakes are arguably higher than ever with a potential College Football Playoff berth on the line.

The Broncos earned hosting rights on the famous blue turf following their dominant 56-31 victory over the Rebels on Oct. 18.

Both teams finished conference play with identical 6-2 records, but Boise State secured the top seed based on composite computer metrics. UNLV Rebels head coach Dan Mullen has his squad seeking the program's first conference championship while Boise State aims for its third straight crown.

The atmosphere in Boise is expected to be electric as two of the Group of Five's premier programs clash for the right to hoist the trophy.

On Tuesday's episode of the Always College Football podcast, college football analyst Greg McElroy weighed in on the showdown. Despite the Rebels' recent success and 10-win season, McElroy pointed to historical trends and physical matchups as the deciding factors. He ultimately predicted the Broncos would win on their home field.

Greg McElroy Details Boise State Rushing Advantage

McElroy emphasized the previous meeting between these teams as a blueprint for his pick because Boise State’s offense generated 562 total yards in that October rout. The analyst believes the physical disparity remains too wide for UNLV to close in just a few weeks because the Broncos rushed for nearly 300 yards in that contest behind running back Dylan Riley. Riley was explosive in the first meeting, with over 200 yards on just 15 carries.

"I'm going to take Boise," McElroy said. "I can't unsee the rushing dominance that I saw the last time out against the Rebels."

A key variable remains the availability of Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen. The veteran signal-caller has been sidelined since Nov. 1 but is reportedly improving. Head coach Spencer Danielson noted that Madsen is "doing a great job in the training room" regarding his recovery.

Boise State Broncos running back Dylan Riley (24) has rushed for 1,016 yards and 10 touchdowns on 164 carries this season. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

If Madsen cannot go, redshirt sophomore Max Cutforth will lead the offense after throwing for 341 yards in the regular-season finale against Utah State. Regardless of who starts under center, the game plan likely involves feeding Riley to wear down the visitors.

The UNLV defense presents a statistical contradiction that could define the game. The unit allows over 175 rushing yards per game and ranks in the bottom half of the conference structurally; however, they are elite on third down, allowing conversions just under 29% of the time. Mullen acknowledged his defense was "downright awful" in the previous loss to Boise State.

His team must find a way to plug gaps on early downs while utilizing their own ground game to control the clock. Rebels running back Jai'Den Thomas enters the game with momentum after a four-touchdown performance against Nevada.

UNLV Rebels quarterback Anthony Colandrea (10) has accounted for over 3,600 total yards and 30 total touchdowns. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Turnovers could level the playing field for the visitors because UNLV boasts a plus-7 turnover margin. Rebels quarterback Anthony Colandrea must protect the football against a Boise State defense that has also forced 21 turnovers this year. History favors the Broncos as they are 11-0 since 2024 when the turnover margin is close.

The Broncos will face the Rebels at home on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET on Fox.