Greg McElroy predicts winner of Utah-Baylor game

Greg McElroy analyzed the Utah vs. Baylor matchup, highlighting the Utes’ dominant run game and defensive strength.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy picked the Utah Utes to win in Week 12 against the Baylor Bears. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Utah heads into Week 12 with everything still on the line. The No. 13 Utah Utes have battled their way to a 7-2 record and remain alive in the Big 12 title hunt, but their margin for error has disappeared. ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy broke down the matchup on Always College Football, calling it a must-win for Utah as it travels to face Baylor on Saturday night in Waco.

McElroy noted the contrasting paths for both programs. Utah, led by offensive coordinator Jason Beck, has rediscovered its identity behind one of the most dominant rushing attacks in the country. Baylor, at 5-4, is searching for stability after an inconsistent season under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears still have a chance to become bowl-eligible with a sixth win, but their defense faces one of its toughest challenges yet.

Both teams enter the matchup off a bye week, setting the stage for a physical, high-stakes clash that could decide the direction of their seasons.

Greg McElroy Points To Utah’s Power Run Game, Defensive Edge

McElroy emphasized how Utah’s balance on both sides of the ball separates it from most Big 12 teams. “Utah brings that 7-2 record, 4-2 in the Big 12,” McElroy said. “It’s a non-negotiable, got-to-have-it win if they’re going to try to find their way into the Big 12 title game.”

He highlighted Utah’s dominance on the ground, explaining that the Utes have rushed for over 2,400 yards this season, the second-most in the country. They average nearly 270 rushing yards per game and control possession for more than 32 minutes per contest. “They are all about the spread, power-run identity,” McElroy said. “It’s an explosive and efficient group that is really hung on the back of what is one of the best offensive lines in the country.”

Turning to Baylor, McElroy pointed out glaring defensive struggles. “Under Dave Aranda, it’s kind of amazing to see his defense ranked 113th against the run,” he said. The Bears allow nearly 180 rushing yards per game and have a minus-eight turnover margin, one of the worst in college football.

Utah Utes running back Wayshawn Parker (1) leads the team with 607 rushing yards this season. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Still, McElroy credited Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson for giving the Bears a fighting chance. “They go for over 312 a game, that’s top five,” he said. “They have a matchup nightmare in their tight end, Michael Trigg.”

Ultimately, McElroy picked Utah to win but expects Baylor to stay competitive. “Now, Utah, in the last couple games, they have outscored their last two opponents 98–21,” McElroy said. “This is a team that has found their identity. They are playing with supreme confidence. I think they’re peaking at the right time. I do think Baylor hangs in this game. I’ll take Utah, but I’ll also take the points.”

The Utah Utes will face the Baylor Bears at McLane Stadium in Waco on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.