Greg McElroy picks winner of Alabama-Auburn Iron Bowl rivalry game

The ESPN analyst predicts Alabama beats Auburn because of Ty Simpson's talent,s despite anticipating a competitive defensive battle.

ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy previews this year's Iron Bowl matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Auburn Tigers. | Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

The Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Jordan-Hare Stadium with significant postseason implications on the line. Former Alabama quarterback and current ESPN analyst Greg McElroy officially weighed in on the matchup during the Wednesday episode of Always College Football. McElroy predicted his alma mater would secure a victory on the Plains despite the anticipated challenges of the rivalry environment.

Alabama enters the contest ranked No. 10 in the nation and looking to cement a spot in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. The Auburn Tigers are fighting for bowl eligibility under the direction of interim head coach DJ Durkin.

McElroy acknowledged the emotional nature of the game but ultimately pointed to the disparity in offensive reliability between the two programs as the deciding factor.

The analyst emphasized that Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer and his staff have prepared their quarterback for this specific stage. McElroy believes the offensive game plan will be enough to overcome a spirited effort from the home team. He expects the Crimson Tide to handle the pressure and execute when it matters most against their bitter in-state rival.

Greg McElroy Details Alabama Advantages Over Auburn Offense

McElroy highlighted the performance of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson as a primary reason for his Tide selection. Simpson has shown resilience throughout the season and the analyst expects a strong showing on Saturday. The coaching staff’s ability to prepare Simpson for the noise and intensity of Jordan-Hare Stadium remains a pivotal element of the prediction.

"I think Ty Simpson will play great in this game," McElroy said. "I think the coaching staff will have him ready to roll, which is why I'm taking Alabama to win the game."

The analysis also focused heavily on the defensive side of the ball. McElroy credited the Auburn defense for keeping games competitive throughout the year. He specifically noted that the unit will likely keep the score close against the Crimson Tide. However, his confidence waned when evaluating the Tigers' ability to move the ball consistently against the Alabama defense.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) has 2,934 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions this season. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

"I think Auburn's defense will come to play, which is why I think this game will be very close and competitive," McElroy said. "But still, at this point, I'm having a hard time trusting Auburn's offense because there's been way more bad tape than there's been good tape."

The Tigers recently displayed offensive firepower in a win over the Vanderbilt Commodores. McElroy warned listeners not to let that single performance mask season-long struggles. He pointed out that the Alabama defense leads the SEC in passing defense and allows fewer than 20 points per game in conference play. This unit is well-equipped to exploit the mistakes that have plagued Auburn throughout the year.

"I think Alabama's defense, they definitely possess the potential to make that bad tape come to the forefront yet again," McElroy said.

History suggests the environment will play a major role regardless of the records. The Crimson Tide hold a 7-10 record at Jordan-Hare Stadium since the late 1980s. Recent trips to Auburn have resulted in narrow victories requiring late-game heroics or overtime periods. The Tigers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide will face the Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.