Houston vs. Arizona State score prediction by expert football model

Plenty is on the line this weekend as Arizona State welcomes Houston in college football’s Week 9 action, and what happens here could affect the shape of the Big 12 title picture going forward, so let’s lock in a prediction for the game.

Houston has been playing somewhat under the radar, just one loss against conference favorite Texas Tech away from being undefeated, and that was the only ranked team it played so far this season. That is, until it faces the Sun Devils.

Arizona State is the reigning Big 12 champion, but its title defense got off to a slow start after losses against unranked Mississippi State and an ugly 32-point defeat against Utah, but rebounded with a win over that Red Raiders team and got back in the rankings.

What do the analytics predict for when the Sun Devils and Cougars face off this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Houston and Arizona State compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection for this Big 12 clash.

Houston vs. Arizona State score prediction

The models project a close game this weekend. A very close game. In fact, they expect these Big 12 rivals to play to an effective tie.

SP+ predicts that Arizona State will defeat Houston outright in the game. But here’s where it gets tricky. The model technically forecasts what appears to be a 25-25 score.

However, the system also projects that the Sun Devils will actually finish 0.9 points better than the Cougars, or simply by 1 point if we round that figure up.

In terms of outright victory? The model gives Arizona State a very slight 52 percent chance to take down the Cougars.

That translates into a very narrow statistical edge for the Sun Devils over the Cougars, and suggests the game is so closely matched that the final result could come down to something other than raw talent and superior strategy.

Who is favored?

The betting markets have named the Sun Devils a favorite by more than a touchdown over the Cougars consistently since the open.

Arizona State is a 7.5 point favorite against Houston, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Arizona State at -270 and for Houston at +220 to win outright.

Our final word: How to pick the game

Arizona State is tough to beat in its stadium. It’s won 10 straight games at home, 4 games shy of its longest streak, and 4 of those wins have come against ranked teams.

Neither the Sun Devils or Cougars will have to play current Big 12 leaders Cincinnati or BYU, so what happens here could prove very consequential in shaping the conference championship race, and thus the College Football Playoff picture.

Sam Leavitt has won 10 of his 11 starts in Big 12 play as Arizona State’s quarterback, but Houston’s offense can attack you in a variety of ways, whether it’s Conner Weigman exposing your secondary or this ground attack slicing you up the middle.

Weigman’s dual-threat capability could be the Sun Devils’ kryptonite on defense as the Utah game showed, and Houston can find some running lanes on this front seven, but Arizona State should have just enough defensive stops in them at home.

Houston +7.5
Arizona State to win -270
Bet over 46.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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