Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins the Peach Bowl, and why?

It’s a family affair for the Big Ten with a spot in the national championship game on the line as No. 1 seed Indiana squares off against fifth-seed Oregon in the Peach Bowl semifinal.

Indiana has smashed up just about everything in sight, marching out to a 14-0 record with its first outright Big Ten title since 1945 by edging out reigning champ Ohio State and then pounding the bewildered SEC runner-up Alabama in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal.

If they go all the way, the Hoosiers would become the first 16-0 team in college football since Yale did it back in 1894. Not bad for a program that has the most losses all-time.

Oregon is a 13-1 team with that one loss coming courtesy of these Hoosiers back during the regular season, but is coming off a dominant 23-0 victory over Big 12 champion Texas Tech in the quarterfinal round.

Indiana vs. Oregon: Keys to the game

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction College Football Playoff — Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

1. Indiana’s Defensive Discipline vs. Dante Moore

Indiana’s biggest edge arguably remains a very disciplined defense that already solved Oregon’s scheme once, holding Dante Moore to 186 passing yards with two interceptions and six sacks in the October win at Eugene.

The Hoosiers compress space, tackle cleanly, and rarely bust coverages, forcing Moore to sustain long drives instead of living on explosive downfield gainers.

Key to this rematch is turning that discipline into disruption again: winning on early downs, disguising pressures, and closing throwing lanes so Oregon’s timing‑based pass game never finds a rhythm.

If Indiana can keep Moore uncomfortable without giving up cheap shots in the deep field, it tilts the game back toward another grind that favors the unbeaten No. 1 seed.

2. Oregon’s Early‑Down Efficiency and Protection

Oregon’s path back into the national title picture depends on staying ahead of the chains and protecting Moore far better than in the first meeting.

This is not a max‑protect offense; the Ducks prefer to get the ball out quickly on first and second down to avoid Indiana dictating pressure looks on third and long.

With top back Noah Whittington healthy and Jordon Davison sidelined, Oregon must manufacture run efficiency with motion, RPOs, and constraint plays rather than stubborn downhill calls into Indiana’s stout front.

If that early‑down formula works, Moore’s accuracy, Oregon’s speed at receiver, and a more confident offensive line could finally stress a Hoosier defense that has thrived when opponents become predictable.

3. Mendoza, Complementary Run Game, and Game Control

Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza has turned Indiana into a complete, ball‑control machine, pairing 36 touchdown passes with just six interceptions while adding some key rushing scores.

The Hoosiers average over 220 rushing yards per game, using a deep backfield and a physical line to stay on schedule and keep their defense fresh.

Against an Oregon defense coming off a 23–0 shutout of Texas Tech, Indiana’s key is balance: steady run success, efficient intermediate throws, and red‑zone poise that converts long, methodical drives into sevens instead of threes.

If Mendoza controls tempo again, limits negative plays, and avoids the rare turnover, Indiana’s complementary profile again looks built to survive a tight matchup.

Indiana vs. Oregon prediction: Who wins?

Indiana vs. Oregon College Football Playoff prediction — Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Line: Indiana -3.5, 48.5, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

If a team of destiny exists, it might be Indiana. Give them credit: they created that destiny themselves, playing a punishing brand of defense and riding an efficient offense behind a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback.

Dante Moore had the worst game of his season against the Hoosiers’ defense, and his late interception, one of two on the day, helped seal the deal in what remains Oregon’s only loss this year.

Jordon Davison was the Ducks’ leading rusher in that first meeting, and his absence in the rematch makes it difficult to see this going another way, in particular after watching the Oregon offense fail to capitalize as much as it could have in the Orange Bowl.

Having their rushing output compromised to that degree will only put more pressure on Moore to win the game, and Indiana’s secondary coverage unit is a little too good to let that happen. The Hoosiers will play for the national championship.

College Football HQ picks...

Indiana wins 33-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the Peach Bowl Game

When: Fri., Jan. 9
Where: Atlanta

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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