Iowa State vs. Kansas State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Iowa State vs. Kansas State by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State score prediction 2024 / William Purnell-Imagn Images

A notable Big 12 matchup that will help decide the crowded conference title picture kicks off as Iowa State welcomes Kansas State on Saturday night. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Iowa State is one of four teams tied for first-place in the Big 12 standings and one of nine teams in the conference still technically in the league title game race.

The good news for the Cyclones is they will make it to Arlington to face Arizona State if there’s a four-way tie at 7-2 based on the current tiebreaker rules. First, they have to win.

Standing in their way is Kansas State, which not only needs to beat the ‘Clones but wants BYU, Colorado, and Arizona State to also lose their games in order to qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Cyclones and Wildcats meet this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa State and Kansas State compare in this Week 14 college football game.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State score prediction

The models favor the underdog Wildcats over the currently-favored Cyclones in this matchup, but by a very narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Kansas State will defeat Iowa State by a projected score of 26 to 25 and to win the game by an expected margin of 0.6 points.

The model gives the Wildcats a narrow 51 percent of victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State odds, how to pick the game

Iowa State is a 2.5 point favorite against Kansas State, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -128 and for Kansas State at +106 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Kansas State +2.5
• Wildcats to win +106
• Bet under 51.5 points

Most bettors are taking the Cyclones to beat the Wildcats as favorites this weekend, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Iowa State is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Kansas State will either win the game outright in an upset or keep the final margin under 3 points in a loss.

Computer prediction

SP+ appears to be the outlier as most other football analytical models are taking the Cyclones over the Wildcats this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Iowa State is the narrow favorite at home, coming out ahead in 54.3 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Kansas State as the expected winner in the remaining 45.7 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Iowa State is projected to be just 1.5 points better than Kansas State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Kansas State vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Ames, Ia.

Time: 6:30 p.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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