Iowa vs. Iowa State football prediction: What the analytics say

The latest edition of the Cy-Hawk Trophy game gets underway this weekend as No. 16 Iowa State welcomes Iowa in college football’s Week 2 rivalry action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Iowa handled Albany well enough in the opener, relying on a strong ground game that powered for over 300 yards, but the expectation is that the passing game will improve with new quarterback Mark Gronowski at the helm working in Tim Lester’s system.

Iowa State is already 2-0 after a signature victory over Big 12 rival Kansas State in the Week 0 game and after smashing South Dakota in a 55-7 result that saw Rocco Becht set a school record by completing 95 percent of his passes.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Iowa vs. Iowa State football prediction

The computer models are giving a decent advantage to the Cyclones at home against the Hawkeyes based on their current projections.

Iowa State is the favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 65.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Iowa as the projected winner in the remaining 34.6 percent of sims.

In total, the Cyclones emerged as the outright winner in 13,080 of the computer’s simulations of the game, while the Hawkeyes edged out Iowa State in the other 6,920 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Iowa State is projected to be 3.8 points better than Iowa on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Cyclones to cover the spread against the Hawkeyes.

That’s because Iowa State is a 2.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 41.5 points for the game.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -154 and for Iowa at +128 to win outright.

Where the money is going

Almost seven in 10 bets are siding with the Cyclones to cover the narrow line over the Hawkeyes, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Iowa State is getting 69 percent of bets to win the game by at least a field goal and cover the point spread in this rivalry game.

The other 31 percent of wagers project the Hawkeyes will either upset the Cyclones outright or keep the final margin under three points in a loss.

More... Iowa vs. Iowa State picks, odds: Where experts see an edge

Iowa vs. Iowa State future projections

The models expect the Cyclones to be a factor in the postseason race later on.

Iowa State is projected to be 10.3 points better than what the index calls an average opponent on a neutral field, ranking No. 24 on the latest 136-team football rankings.

The computer estimates the Cyclones will win 8.4 games this coming season.

And that they have a 14.2 percent chance to win the Big 12 conference title, with a marginally-better 19.4 percent shot to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Iowa is projected to win 6.2 games this season, according to the latest models.

They forecast the Hawkeyes to be 7.1 points better than an average opponent and have a 68.5 percent chance to finish the season as bowl eligible.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to watch Iowa vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Iowa State

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks