James Madison vs. Oregon score prediction by expert football model

James Madison comes into its first College Football Playoff with a chance to play Cinderella, but drew one of the toughest asks in the sport, paying a visit to Oregon in the first round game on Saturday.

Earning a bid as a historic second Group of Five team, the Dukes have dominated opponents en route to a Sun Belt championship, but played a schedule ranked just 121st in the country by analytic models.

They can change that narrative with a solid performance against a one-loss Oregon team whose only blemish is against undefeated No. 1 seed Indiana and was itself the top seed a year ago.

What do the analytics predict will happen as the Ducks face off against the Dukes?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Oregon and James Madison compare in this first round College Football Playoff game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Oregon vs. James Madison score prediction

Predictably, the models are siding with the Ducks over the Dukes, and by a wide margin.

SP+ predicts that Oregon will defeat James Madison by a projected score of 34 to 19 and will win the game by an expected margin of 15.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Ducks a solid 83 percent chance of outright victory over the Dukes.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 391-370 against the spread with a 51.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 4-5 (44.4%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets like the home team by about three touchdowns in this playoff matchup.

Oregon is a 20.5 point favorite against James Madison, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oregon at -2500 and for James Madison at +1200 to win outright.

What we think will happen

James Madison wants to run the football, something this offense has leaned more into during the latter half of the season, in an effort to shorten the game and keep the Oregon attack off the field.

But the quality of the Ducks run defense and a secondary that has let precious little go by all season, combined with a dual-threat offense manned by a trio of solid backs and elite receiving talent coming back will pave an easy path to an Oregon win.

College Football HQ predicts: Oregon beats James Madison, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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